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Quiet week ahead: it's hard to see what will drive FX out of its current ranges

Currency Analysis

Quiet week ahead: it's hard to see what will drive FX out of its current ranges

20/04/2015

For today, the ECB will announce details of its QE purchases, while ECB Vice President is scheduled to speak at the European Parliament. The only notable release is euro area construction output which usually receives scant attention, said analysts at Lloyds Bank.

With such a quiet week ahead on the data front it is hard to see what will drive FX out of its current ranges, they said. CPI in the U.S. last Friday was slightly better, but only saw a rather muted reaction from 2 -5 year yields push a little higher and provided minor support for the USD. As such, we believe there is more sideways to lower work to do for the USD against its major trading partners before we see it appreciate to new highs on the back of improving data in the U.S as we still believe September is the “lift-off” date for the start of rate normalisation.

As for the key levels Lloyds Bank's experts remain focussed on: In EURUSD 1.0720-1.0620 support and 1.0950-1.1070 resistance, in GBPUSD 1.4850-1.4790 support and 1.5150/1.5200 resistance, in AUDUSD .7710-.7645 support and .7950/.8050 resistance, in USDCAD 1.2390/1.2425 resistance and 1.2100-1.20 support and USDNOK 7.95/7.97 resistance and 7.66 then 7.50 as support.

Source: Lloyds TSB