Berenberg downgrades Britvic after strong share price performance

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Berenberg downgrades Britvic after strong share price performance

Thu, 20 April 2017
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Berenberg downgrades Britvic after strong share price performance

(ShareCast News) - Berenberg downgraded Britvic to 'hold' from 'buy', keeping the price target at 725p, following a strong re-rating.
The bank noted that since the start of the year, the shares have risen by around 20%, despite little change to earnings estimates. It said the group had a good start to the year, with a decent first quarter, but simply reiterated that full-year results would be in line with expectations.

"Although we think that risk could be slightly skewed to the upside if trends from Q1 continue, we do not believe that there are sufficient catalysts to drive significant outperformance.

"Therefore, while a small amount of upside to our price target remains, we think the stock looks close to fair value given its relatively weak near-term growth profile."

Berenberg said a strong performance from Fruit Shoot in the US led to substantial international growth in the first quarter, adding that management has an ambitious target to increase multipack distribution points from 7k-8k outlets at end FY 2016 to 13k-15k at the end of this year.

"However, the company has been more conservative about the potential distribution gains from the range reviews set to take place during the spring. Elsewhere, Brazil was tough in Q1 as volumes fell by 8%, although constant currency revenue increased by 8% due to price rises.

"With the macro environment still volatile, we think trading may remain challenging over the coming periods. As such, although the recently acquired Bela Ischia business improves Britvic's platform in Brazil, it may not deliver significant growth if conditions do not improve."

At 0943 BST, the shares were down 1.6% to 661p.