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Friday preview: Election results to set the scene, industrial data due

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Friday preview: Election results to set the scene, industrial data due

Thu, 08 June 2017
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Friday preview: Election results to set the scene, industrial data due

(ShareCast News) - Unless there is a hung parliament, Friday's fairly quiet business calendar will be full of the economic and financial analysis of the election result, with some industrial and trade data thrown in.
The UK election results will begin to roll in during the small hours, with around 70 results expected by 2am on Friday morning.

Then the deluge begins, with around half of the declarations arriving by around 0400, giving a firmer idea of the result.

In case of a close result, bellwether seats to watch are Carlise, Clacton, Southport, and Westminster North.

Chris Hanretty of the University of East Anglia as a means of easily identifying whether the Conservative party are winning seats off other parties in order to add to their majority. The first to come through are four Labour seats: Ynys Môn at between 0200 BST and 0300, followed by Bishop Aukcland, Chorley, Ealing Central, before any movement away from the SNP with Moray, Perth and North Perthshire and Dumfries and Galloway between 0300 and 0400.

By 0600 close to nine out of 10 declaring officers should have spoken and in the case of a clear majority for the winner, the leader of the losing party will concede to allow the victor to claim victory. In the last general election, David Cameron accepted victory just before 0600.

But in 2010 the hung parliament meant it took another six days for a coalition to be decided.

ECONOMIC DATA

For those who will be looking for something other than the election result, the Bank of England will publish its consumer inflation expectations update, which is the percentage that consumers expect the price of goods and services to change during the next 12 months. A month ago it was at 2.9%.

0930 BST UK industrial production and manufacturing production data from the Office for National Statistics as well as the UK trade balance. At 1300 BST NIESR will release its GDP estimate.

On the UK, manufacturing had a poor first quarter, with output falling in each of the first three months of the year, but the PMI survey suggests a much better start to the second.

In line with the consensus, HSBC said it expect it to manufacturing to rebound to a 0.8% month-on-month rise in April, up from the 0.6% fall a month ago.

The consensus for industrial production is for a bounce back to 0.6% m-o-m from a 0.5% fall in March.

Morgan Stanley foresaw a jump to 1.1% for IP and 0.9% for MP.

Investec added: "Note however that on a year-over-year basis things look less impressive due to a very robust April 2016 base period. Manufacturing output grew by 2.5% in that month, the biggest monthly rise since April 2005, helped by an 8.4% rise in output in the pharmaceutical industry sub-sector. Hence we forecast a further deterioration in the year over year growth rate from 2.3% to 0.5% y/y."

For the trade balance, the market is expecting a small narrowing from -£4.9bn last time to -£3.4bn for April.

"Despite anecdotal evidence of a boost to UK trade from the weaker currency, the data continue to tell only a patchy story of improvement," said HSBC.

"Net exports exerted a big drag on GDP in Q1, and the trade deficit widened back out to 2.1% of GDP - from 1.0% in Q4 2016. A better quarter for manufacturing should provide some support in Q2."

There's no major data from the US due, though the Baker Hughes rig count could move oil prices but most Brits will have long left their desks when those come out at 1800 BST. Early in the day Chinese inflation data is expected to climb at a faster pace, while Germany's trade balance is not expected to change much.

Friday June 09

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Focusrite, Lok'n Store Group, McCarthy & Stone

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (GER) (07:00)
Current Account (GER) (07:00)
Wholesales Inventories (US) (13:30)

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Derwent London

AGMS
Baker Steel Resources Trust Ltd., Deltex Medical Group, M. P. Evans Group, PJSC MNC Norilsk Nickel ADR, Public Joint Stock Company Gazprom Neft ADR, Public Joint Stock Company Severstal GDR (Reg S), Richoux Group, Telefonica SA, Telefonica SA, Tomco Energy, Vertu Capital Limited (DI)

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (09:30)
Industrial Production (09:30)
Manufacturing Production (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Barr (A.G.), Card Factory, Carillion, Computacenter, Derwent London, Exova Group , G4S, Ibstock , Irish Continental Group Units, Keller Group, Ocean Wilsons Holdings Ltd., Robert Walters, Science Group , SDL, SThree, Trinity Mirror