Friday preview: Watch out for UK industrial output and US non-farm payrolls
(ShareCast News) - Ushering in the weekend, the US non-farm payrolls report is a globally significant event for traders, while in the UK attention earlier will be on official industrial output.
UK company reports should include esure, JD Wetherspoon and JRP Group.
Interest rate futures already indicate a virtually nailed-on rate hike from the Federal Open Markets Committee on 15 March, the US jobs report just needs to deliver a solid number in order to avert disaster.
Trading within both European and US markets over the week has been characterised by a distinct degree of hesitation, with direction often being found across the FX markets rather than the indices, but this could change on Friday, said market analyst Joshua Mahony at IG.
"With the heightened volatility in the crude market, coupled with tomorrow's impending US jobs report, it is likely we will see things pick up to close out what could be the final week before a rate rise from the Fed."
For the February employment report, headline payrolls are expected to increase 190k, almost entirely from the private sector level.
Among UK economists, Barclays is expecting a 200k rise, and Pantheon Macroeconomics a 250k rise.
"Factors influencing our forecasts include initial claims data, which have shown modest improvement during the survey period, and trends in the employment diffusion index," said Barclays.
UK industrial output, manufacturing output and construction output are all published by the Office for National Statistics at 0930 GMT.
Industrial production is forecast to fall 0.4% month-on-month fall in January, according to the consensus, having risen 2.1% in December, with the year-on-year figure to rise 3.3% from 2.0% the previous month.
Manufacturing rose 1.3% last month and the consensus is for a fall of 0.6% this time, while construction output is seen flat after the previous 0.3% rise.
Consumer inflation expectations, released by Bank of England, are also due to be released, along with visible trade balance and NIESR's GDP estimate.
For Wetherspoons, broker Numis said it expects strong first-half results, reflecting solid lfl sales growth (3.4%) but mainly an excellent margin performance.
"We estimate that it is benefitting from selective price increases and the company suggested that lfl sales exceeded its expectations in Q1, with the associated favourable operational gearing," analysts wrote, noting management has been consistently cautious in its cost guidance, expecting several headwinds in the second half, including increased business rates wage inflation and higher cost of goods sold from FX weakness.
Friday 10 March
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Conviviality, Daejan Holdings, Henderson Smaller Companies Inv Trust
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Duet Real Estate Finance Ltd, IBM Corp.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (GER) (07:00)
Current Account (GER) (07:00)
Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)
Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)
Alpha Pyrenees Trust Ltd, Esure Group, Pennant International Group
Private & Commercial Finance Group
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (US) (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Blackrock Income And Growth Investment Trust, Brewin Dolphin Holdings, JPMorgan Russian Securities