Tuesday preview: FX traders eye opinion polls, AO World reports

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Tuesday preview: FX traders eye opinion polls, AO World reports

Mon, 05 June 2017
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Tuesday preview: FX traders eye opinion polls, AO World reports

(ShareCast News) - Tuesday will see further opinion polls as the countdown to Thursday's UK general election rolls over, while some second-line macroeconomic and company diary items keep investors ticking over.
Tuesday is expected to see poll data from YouGov and Opinium. Wednesday there is another daily update from YouGov and a bit of fine-tuning from Survation, while early on Thursday morning Survation puts out its final pre-vote update and Ipsos Mori its version before the polling blackout is put in place.

"Two weeks back, the consensus majority was probably close to 100 or even higher when polls put Conservatives 15-20% ahead," said Josh O'Byrne, an FX strategist at Citi. "The narrowing of the polls more recently however, and weakness in GBP, suggests the expected majority has fallen. We think consensus is closer to 50-75. This roughly corresponds with what betting markets are pricing."

As for economic data, the British Retail Consortium will release its monthly sales monitor at midnight, while private retailer John Lewis is due to release sales data for the previous week's trading, which has some read-through for both other UK retailers in the UK.

Airline groups IAG and easyJet both announce traffic stats for May too, following an update from the International Air Transport Association, which noted the ban on the carrying of laptops and tablet devices could be extended.

AO World, the online white goods retailer, is due to report full year results on Tuesday, which are due to be be its last as a FTSE 250 company as it will be relegated as part of the quarterly reshuffle later this month, with its shares having lost over half their value since listing in 2014.

Shore Capital analysts projected £699.1m of sales and a £3.4m adjusted loss before tax as the business continues to evolve under new CEO Steve Caunce.

ShoreCap said the results should highlight whether or not the changing consumer dynamic in the UK has had a material impact on big-ticket items.

"With the recent strengthening of the balance sheet following a £50m equity raise, AO should at least trade with greater confidence in its financial constitution and working capital position. We still harbour concerns about the lack of competitive advantage when assessing the AO proposition and the
valuation is hard to justify on traditional metrics."

Analysts at broker Hargreaves Lansdown said to be fair to AO, not all of the headwinds it is facing are its own doing.

"Sterling's weakness means importing electricals is now more expensive, while worries over the UK economy will have also had an impact. After all, demand for big ticket items can be volatile, and is prone to wax and wane with the fortunes of the economy.

After already confirming a weaker than expected second half performance in its most recent trading update, investors should keeping an eye on the group's progress in Europe, where the profits from the more established UK business are being re-invested.

Tuesday June 06

Factory Orders (GER) (07:00)
Retail Sales (EU) (11:00)

BRC Shop Price Index (00:01)

Acal, AO World, BP Marsh & Partners, Carclo, Freeagent Holdings, Fulcrum Utility Services Ltd. (DI), GB Group, KCOM Group, Palace Capital , Vianet Group, VP, WYG

Gooch & Housego, IDOX, Oxford Metrics, Private & Commercial Finance Group

Joules Group

James Halstead

Amec Foster Wheeler

Hostelworld Group

Medilink-Global UK Ltd.

Bagir Group Ltd. (DI), Fair Oaks Income Limited 2017 Shs NPV, Fidelity Japanese Values, Forbidden Technologies, Gem Diamonds Ltd. (DI), Genel Energy, London & Associated Properties, Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust, Mobile Tornado Group, NB Distressed Debt Investment Fund Limited, Realm Therapeutics , Safestay, Shawbrook Group, Somero Enterprises Inc. (DI), The Gym Group, Vietnam Enterprise Investments (DI)

Hostelworld Group , Integrated Diagnostics Holdings