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Week ahead: Will the MPC turn more hawkish (on Thursday)?

Week Ahead

Week ahead: Will the MPC turn more hawkish (on Thursday)?

Fri, 05 May 2017
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Week ahead: Will the MPC turn more hawkish (on Thursday)?

(ShareCast News) - Should the Bank of England bring forward the date of its expected first hike in Bank Rate? Investors will hopefully have the answer to that question resolved after this week's Monetary Policy Committee meeting and Inflation Report.
Recent economic data in the UK had come in on the weaker side, prompting some observers to caution against any temptation to tighten, regardless of what the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank might be inclined to do over the next few quarters.

Fanning that debate, in a speech delivered in April the MPC's Michael Saunders recently to broach the possibility that Bank Rate might be headed higher sooner than some in the markets might expect.

Admittedly, Saunders said on that occasion had not made his mind up yet.

In any case, at least some analysts advised against the BoE entertaining any such shift.

"In terms of votes, we think it is unlikely that any other member will join Forbes in voting for a hike. While Saunders did sound hawkish in a recent speech, the evidence of the slowdown materializing in the hard data could tone down his hawkish tone," said analysts at Credit Suisse.

For their part, Jane Foley at Rabobank said: "In view of the highly politicised backdrop, it seems unlikely that the Bank will deliberately seek to put itself in the limelight and we expect that MPC will signal that it is happy to remain on the policy fence. While the MPC will likely repeat its warning that there is only so much inflation it is prepared to look through, with higher prices threatening to progressively erode real incomes and pressure demand, we see little risk of the BoE hiking rates. We expect steady policy well into next year and potentially through into 2019."

No less relevant, more so even, on Sunday 7 May Frenchmen would cast their ballots to choose the country's next president. Centrist-reformer Emmanuele Macron was widely expected to convincingly trounce his far-right opponent Marine Le Pen.

Yet given the highly fragmented political and social landscape, a few analysts cautioned that there was room for negative surprises, with even a weak win for Macron having potentially crucial implications for the June elections to the lower house of the French parliament and the outlook for reforms in the euro area's second-largest economy.

Given the recent ructions in commodity markets as a result of weaker economic data and tightening regulations on shadow-banking in China, Monday's April trade data from the Asian giant would be closely scrutinised.

Later in the week was set to bring another barrage of tier-one economic data Stateside, with reports on consumer prices, retail sales and consumer confidence all set for release.

Monday 08 May

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Tiso Blackstar Group SE (DI)

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Blue Capital Global Reinsurance Fund Ltd (DI)

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Factory Orders (GER) (07:00)

FINALS
Altitude Group

AGMS
Centrica, Costain Group, Mobeus Income & Growth 4 Vct, PPHE Hotel Group Ltd, PureTech Health

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Centrica

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Halifax House Price Index (08:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
CareTech Holding

Q1
Georgia Healthcare Group

Tuesday 09 May

INTERIMS
Cambria Automobiles, Treatt

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
IBM Corp.

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (GER) (06:00)
Current Account (GER) (07:00)
Industrial Production (GER) (07:00)
Wholesales Inventories (US) (15:00)

FINALS
Centralnic Group , TyraTech Inc. (DI / REGS), Water Intelligence

ANNUAL REPORT
Randall & Quilter Investment Holdings (DI)

AGMS
Amerisur Resources, Blue Capital Global Reinsurance Fund Ltd (DI), Capital & Regional, Cello Group, Centaur Media, Frontier Smart Technologies Group Limited, Goals Soccer Centres, Grafton Group Units, Henderson High Income Trust, IFG Group, Macfarlane Group, Non-Standard Finance, Paysafe Group , Randall & Quilter Investment Holdings (DI), Rightmove, Savills, Spirax-Sarco Engineering, William Hill

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
William Hill

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Fisher (James) & Sons

Wednesday 10 May

INTERIMS
Compass Group

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
JPMorgan Asian Investment Trust

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
Import and Export Price Indices (US) (13:30)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)

FINALS
Braemar Shipping Services, Warpaint London

AGMS
Aberdeen Asian Income Fund Ltd., Anglo Pacific Group, Aviva, Barclays, Be Heard Group, British Smaller Companies VCT 2, Cape, Dalata Hotel Group, Ebiquity, EKF Diagnostics Holdings , GLI Finance Limited, HGCapital Trust, IP Group, ITV, Marshalls, Mobeus Income & Growth Vct, National Express Group, Novae Group, OneSavings Bank, Parity Group, Permanent TSB Group Holdings, Rentokil Initial, Vesuvius, Wood Group (John), Worldpay Group

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Barratt Developments

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Smith & Nephew, Stadium Group, Virgin Money Holdings (UK)

Q1
Bank Pekao SA GDS (Reg S), Palm Hills Developments SAE GDR (Reg S)

Thursday 11 May

INTERIMS
On The Beach Group

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Photo-Me International, SCS Group

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Aberdeen Asset Management, Blancco Technology Group, Focusrite, Lok'n Store Group, Sage Group

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
BP, Ediston Property Investment Company, Honeycomb Investment Trust, Picton Property Income Ltd

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
Producer Price Index (US) (13:30)
Retail Sales (US) (13:30)

FINALS
3i Infrastructure, BT Group, Stobart Group Ltd.

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
888 Holdings

SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Admiral Group, Fidessa Group, ICG-Longbow Senior Secured UK Property Debt Investments Ltd

EGMS
Industrial Mlulti Propety Trust

AGMS
Communisis, Convatec Group , Direct Line Insurance Group, Dunedin Enterprise Investment Trust, Hochschild Mining, John Laing Group , Keller Group, Lloyds Banking Group, Melrose Industries, Mondi, Petrofac Ltd., Phoenix Group Holdings (DI), Plant Health Care, Rathbone Brothers, Robinson, Royal Bank of Scotland Group, Serco Group, SIG, Starwood European Real Estate Finance Ltd, TechFinancials (DI), Thalassa Holdings Ltd. (DI), Unite Group

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Coca-Cola HBC AG (CDI), Hansard Global, Mondi

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (09:30)
BoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00)
Industrial Production (09:30)
Manufacturing Production (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
888 Holdings, Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd. (Singapore), Hongkong Land Holding Ltd. (Sing.Reg), Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd (Singapore Reg), Jardine Strategic Holdings Ltd. (Singapore), Mandarin Oriental International (Singapore), Property Franchise Group

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
AA , Admiral Group, Barr (A.G.), BBGI SICAV S.A. (DI), Carillion, Centaur Media, Central Asia Metals, Centrica, Computacenter, Epwin Group, Fidessa Group, Frenkel Topping Group, Hiscox Limited (DI), Ibstock , Integrated Diagnostics Holdings, Macfarlane Group, Merlin Entertainments , NMC Health, North Midland Construction, Ocean Wilsons Holdings Ltd., Quixant, Saga , Sainsbury (J), SDL, Share plc, SQS Software Quality Systems AG, Trinity Mirror, Weiss Korea Opportunity Fund Ltd

Q1
Coca-Cola HBC AG (CDI), Sampo OYJ

Friday 12 May

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Carr's Group, Northamber

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Business Inventories (US) (15:00)
Consumer Price Index (GER) (07:00)
Consumer Price Index (US) (13:30)
Industrial Production (EU) (10:00)
U. of Michigan Confidence (Prelim) (US) (15:00)

FINALS
HydroDec Group

IMSS
Provident Financial

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
GVC Holdings

EGMS
MTI Wireless Edge Ltd.

AGMS
Global Ports Investments GDR (REG S), Global Ports Investments GDR (REG S), Highcroft Investment, Interserve, Menzies(John), MTI Wireless Edge Ltd., Provident Financial, Symphony Environmental Technologies, TT Electronics, Tyman, X5 Retail Group NV GDR (Reg S)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
4Imprint Group, Arbuthnot Banking Group, BlackRock Latin American Inv Trust, BlackRock World Mining Trust, British Smaller Companies VCT 2, Clarke (T.), Devro, Drax Group, Globaldata, Harwood Wealth Management Group, International Personal Finance, Johnson Service Group, Man Group, Millennium & Copthorne Hotels, Moneysupermarket.com Group, Norsk Hydro ASA, Pearson, PPHE Hotel Group Ltd, RSA Insurance Group, Secure Trust Bank, Smurfit Kappa Group, St James's Place