Spanish Elections: Leading conservative party to win and anti-austerity coalition to surpass socialists

According to the latest survey, the Spanish elections will lead to Mariano Rajoy's ruling conservative party gaining the most votes, and the anti-austerity coalition Unidos Podemos would take over from the mainstream socialists.

The general election is due to take place on June 26th, three days after a Brexit referendum that could also shake up the European Union.

Spain hit a stalemate after the December general election of last year, with no clear party winning an absolute majority, and no agreement being reached in the months of negotiations which followed.

Radical-left outfit Podemos have been increasing their reach rapidly since their foundation in 2014 on the back of street protests and the mobilisaation of various intellectual leaders. This follows the trend towards the extreme left set by Greece´s Syrizas, and the election of Jeremy Corbyn as the UK Labour leader this year. They have recently reached agreement with other leftist entities to form a coalition ahead of the upcoming election.

Radical-left outfit Podemos have been increasing their reach rapidly since their foundation in 2014

Centre-left socialist party PSOE are suffering the same fate as many of Labour's Blairites as a European shift to more radical socialism, and they could face the wrath of the Podemos juggernaut in a few weeks time.

The sorpasso or "the overtaking", of the radical left parties from Pedro Sánchez´s mainstream socialist PSOE has been confirmed after weeks of speculation following an eventual agreement between Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias and representatives of other left-wing parties.

Rajoy's party would continue to lead the number of seats, but still without a majority to govern. In fact, according to the projections they would lose between 2 and 5 seats compared with the previous election on the 20th
December 2015. 176 seats are required to gain a majority and PP currently have between 118 and 121 according to the CIS.

Rajoy's conservatives are now scrambling to remain the most-voted party

After enjoying a majority in the previous term of government, Rajoy's conservatives are now scrambling to remain the most-voted party, as they lose seats to new right-wing organisation Ciudadanos, or Citizens.

What seems the most likely outcome for Spain at this stage is a grand coalition, similar to what is in place in Germany, as the vote splinters further and there seems less and less likelihood of any party emerging from the 26th June with an outright majority.