The first 100 days of Brexit

A few weeks ago, many would have laughed at the prospect of seriously considering a British Leave vote achieving success in the June 23rd referendum, but now it is a distinct possibility.

An increasing number of polls are predicting that Britain will indeed vote to abandon the European Union and go it alone. Those in power in Brussels have ordered that nothing should be put down on paper in anticipation of the result, but it is likely that provisions are being put in place for such a situation.

Global markets are already reacting to the potential separation as the pound's volatility increases. EU President Donald Tusk goes so far as to say that it could spell the end of “western political civilization itself.”

According to Bloomberg, Tusk's assertation is an exaggeration, but there could be panic in many quarters. Their predictions for the first 100 days look like this:

FIRST 24 HOURS

If an exit vote becomes apparent in the arly hours of the 24th, Bloomberg says that the EU’s top brass from Berlin to Brussels will be forced into damage control. In echoes of the Greek debt crisis, euro-area finance ministers may hold an emergency meeting as soon as that evening." Following this would most likely be even more violent downward swings for sterling, and more aggressive interventions by the Swiss National Bank.

In echoes of the Greek debt crisis, euro-area finance ministers may hold an emergency meeting as soon as that evening

Politically, the first few hours would also be tense. “The European Union will need to have a credible strategy,” said Guntram Wolff, of the Brussels-based policy group Bruegel. “To avoid a gradual disintegration of the EU, political leaders will need to strengthen the attractiveness of the EU and especially the Franco-German alliance.” Both of these heavyweights would have work to do in order to quell further unrest in various parts of Europe.

THE FIRST WEEK

As the reality hits home of the seriousness of the change, Europe will have plenty of questions to answer, particularly with the Spanish general election just days away on Monday 26th June. A strong message would need to be delivered, in order "to work out what to offer -- or, more likely, what not to offer -- the U.K. in areas such as free movement of people and access to the EU’s single market," Bloomberg's report said.

David Cameron is scheduled to meet with the other 27 EU leaders a week or so afterwards, and this is where he may be forced to use Article 50, which has never been used before. "That would set a deadline of two years -- until the end of June 2018, during which time the U.K. would have to negotiate its exit."

THE FIRST 100 DAYS

The biggest fear among most European Union leaders is that a Leave vote will trigger the scepticism of other European countries towards the bloc, and in turn they will demand the same fate. "The EU could find itself dealing with another prime minister -- someone like former London Mayor Boris Johnson, who supported Brexit and whom bookmakers have installed as the favorite to lead the Conservative Party." Cameron has pledged to stay on whatever the outcome but his hand may be forced.

The EU could find itself dealing with another prime minister -- someone like former London Mayor Boris Johnson

Another referendum on Scottish independence could be in the offing, creating further political uncertainty within the United Kingdom. Various other arrangements would have to be sorted out, including the relocation of any EU bodies within the UK, including the European Banking Authority. The Uk would aso have to begin to renegotiate a heap of trade deals and other EU agreements.