Bonds: Federal Reserve might still hike rates twice in 2016, Dudley says

By

Sharecast News | 07 May, 2016

These were the movements in the most widely-followed 10-year sovereign bond yields:

US: 1.78% (+3bp)

UK: 1.42% (-5bp)

Germany: 0.14% (-2bp)

Italy: 1.49% (0bp)

France: 0.52% (-1bp)

Spain: 1.59% (+1bp)

Portugal: 3.32% (+4bp)

Greece: 8.52% (-10bp)

Japan: 0.11% (+1bp)

Gilts outperformed at the end of a week that saw the yield on 10-year Gilts drop by 18 basis points - their largest weekly drop since January - as incoming economic data suggested the economy might be slowing sharply going into the 23 June referendum.

That made for a stark contrast with the performance of US Treasuries on Friday, which retreated on expectations the April jobs report will see the central bank hold off from hiking interest rates until September.

Economists' reactions to the latest figures on the state of the labour market were not particularly downbeat; indeed, many pointed to "strong" details in the report.

However, acting as a backdrop the likes of Bill Gross at Janus Capital and S&P Global's chief economist could be seen bringing up the topic of so-called 'helicopter money', with the former stressing the need for fiscal stimulus Stateside in an interview with Bloomberg Radio.

Their remarks come amid persistent downbeat views on China's economy.

Italian and Spanish 10-year bonds came under pressure too, with market commentary highlighting the current difficult situation in Italy's financial system and political gridlock in Spain.

That saw the yield spread between 10-year bonds in Germany and those from Italy and Spain rise to two month highs of 135 and 145 basis points, respectively.

Bunds were the main beneficiaries of the search by investors for safe-havens ahead of the Brexit referendum, the Spanish elections and the Fed's June policy meeting, with Bunds also seeing their best performance since January.

To take note of, on Friday afternoon the president of the Federal Reserve bank of New York, William Dudley, told The New York Times the US central bank might still raise rates twice in 2016, despite the April jobs numbers.

As an aside, markets also took note of Goldman Sachs's decision on Friday to deepen job cuts at its fixed income trading arm, taking them to 10% for the full year as daily trading revenues fail to revert to past patterns.

Last news