Bonds: Fed's Evans, Harker would rather two more rate hikes in 2017

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Sharecast News | 14 May, 2017

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These were the movements in some of the most widely-followed 10-year sovereign bond yields:

US: 2.33% (-7bp)
UK: 1.09% (-7bp)
Germany: 0.39% (-4bp)
France: 0.84% (-4bp)
Canada: 1.57% (-3bp)
Italy: 2.25% (-4bp)
Spain: 1.63% (-2bp)
Portugal: 3.37% (-2bp)
Greece: 5.68% (+8bp)
Japan: 0.05% (-1bp)

Weaker than expected data on US consumer price inflation sparked almost across-the-board gains in longer-dated developed world sovereign debt amid slightly mixed comments from two top Fed officials.

The rate of gain in US consumer prices slipped from 2.4% year-on-year in March to 2.2% for April (consensus: 2.3%), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Despite Friday's CPI figures, economists appeared to still be unanimous in continuing to forecast another 25 basis point rate hike from the Fed at its 14 June meeting.

"Today’s data do not alter our view that the Federal reserve will tighten policy in June. Labor markets remain strong, and communications from FOMC members have been clear that they remain focused on a tightening policy path. We think softer-than-expected CPI prints for March and April are unlikely to deter the FOMC from action," said Barclays's Blerina Uruci following the data.

Acting as a backdrop, speaking at an event in Dublin the president of the Federal Reserve bank of Chicago, Charles Evans, said he could be comfortable with two interest rates hikes in 2017.

However, in the opinion of Evans the risks to inflation continued to lie to the downside. Hence, if the outlook deteriorated then just one more increase might be appropriate, he said.

Nonetheless, Evans later told Bloomberg TV the US economy had sound fundamentals "right now", describing the global economic context as "much more sound now". He also believed two more hikes in 2017 was the more likely scenario.

On a similar note, his opposite number at the Philly Fed, Patrick Harker, reportedly said he would prefer two more interest rate hikes this year as well, although one might suffice.

As an aside, market watchers noted the weakness in commodity trader Noble Group's debt, with its 8.75% 2022 notes closing the week at just 53 cents on the dollar, sending their yield rocketing higher to 27%.

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