Bonds: Gilts close bumper quarter amid weakness in sterling

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Sharecast News | 31 Mar, 2016

Updated : 20:10

These were the most widely followed longer-term sovereign bond yields:

US: 1.80% (-2bp)

UK: 1.42% (-2bp)

Germany: 0.15% (+0bp)

France: 0.49% (-0bp)

Spain: 1.44% (+1bp)

Italy: 1.22% (+1bp)

Portugal: 2.94% (+0bp)

Greece: 8.59% (-2bp)

Japan: -0.03% (+6bp)

Ten year Gilts closed a bumper quarter in which they outperformed rivals by a comfortable margin, amid somewhat 'dovish' remarks from two US central bank officials.

Returns on Gilts reached almost 5.0% in the first three months of the year, versus gains of 2.9% for US Treasuries and 3.8% for German bunds, according to Bloomberg data.

That was despite net gilt sales by foreign investors of 3.02bn pounds in February, which came quick on the heels of another 6.3bn of sales in January, according to figures published by the Bank of England on Thursday.

In parallel, sterling was headed for its worst three-month stretch since April 2014.

A common denominator to those trends were concerns about a possible Brexit.

Of the 2,002 people canvassed by the Organistion for Responsible Businesses on behalf of The Independent, in a poll conducted between 24 and 28 March, and whose results were published on Thursday, 51.0% of respondents said they would vote to 'remain' in the European Union, whereas 49.0% said they would cast their ballot for the 'leave' campaign.

The performance of euro area debt markets was also giving some investors pause for thought.

Yields on 10-year Bund yields had fallen by 47 basis points over the first three months of 2016, their largest retreat since late 2011, when the currency bloc was still in the grip of a crisis.

Figures released earlier in the day by ONS revealed the UK´s current account deficit hit a record 7.0% of gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2015.

Acting as a backdrop, in remarks to Nikkei the president of the US Federal Reserve bank of Atlanta, Dennis Lockhart, said he though there was scope for three interest rate hikes in 2016, although a move in April need not be mandatory "even with good data".

The president of the Federal Reserve bank of Chicago, Charles Evans, was of a similar view, saying he anticipated two more interest rate hikes in 2016, but that the exact timing of those moves was not important.

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