Bonds: Gilts little changed as market expectations for ECB action build

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Sharecast News | 07 Mar, 2016

Updated : 19:08

These were the movements in some of the most widely-followed 10-year sovereign bond yields:

US: 1.91% (+4bp)
UK: 1.48% (-0bp)
Germany: 0.21% (-3bp)
Spain: 1.59% (+3bp)
France: 0.63% (-4bp)
Italy: 1.46% (-0bp)
Japan: -0.05% (-1bp)
Greece: 9.80% (+4bp)
Portugal: 3.14% (+4bp)

Benchmark Gilts were little changed, despite the ongoing news-flow surrounding the upcoming referendum on the country's continued membership of the European Union, with traders opting for a middle path between rising yields in the States and a retreat in 'core' Eurozone government bonds.

Over the weekend, British Chambers of Commerce chief John Longworth tendered his resignation from the business lobby group.

Longworth argued on 3 March in favour of Brexit, saying that the European Union was incapable of meaningful reform and the UK had a bright future outside the bloc.

Later in the day, in remarks to the BBC, ex-Bank of England governor Mervyn King said he had not yet made up his own mind on the subject.

He told the broadcaster he was still "waiting to hear the facts and the arguments from I hope the BBC which will enable me to make up my mind."

Acting as a backdrop, separate polls conducted by Bloomberg and Reuters showed that a majority of economists and traders, respectively, expected the ECB to increase the amount of its monthly asset purchases and cut the interest rate on deposits from banks.

No major economic reports were released at the start of the week in any of the main geographies, save China.

Data released by the country's central bank revealed a smaller drop in its official foreign exchange reserves, apparently to the satisfaction of analysts.

However, some Eurozone periphery debt came under some pressure.

On 4 March, Fitch Ratings lowered its outlook on Portugal's long-term debt from 'positive' to 'stable'.

In parallel, another ratings agency, Standard&Poor's this time, put its ratings on debt issued by Spain's autonomous region of Catalonia on 'negative credit watch'.

The government in Madrid on Monday hired banks to sell debt falling due in October 2046 "in the near future," subject to market conditions, Bloomberg reported citing a person familiar with the matter.

Finally, in remarks made after the close of markets in London, US Fed governor Lael Branard argued for patience when assessing the current situation in markets.

"Given weak and decelerating foreign demand, it is critical to carefully protect and preserve the progress we have made here at home through prudent adjustments to the policy path. Tighter financial conditions and softer inflation expectations may pose risks to the downside for inflation and domestic activity. From a risk-management perspective, this argues for patience as the outlook becomes clearer."

Fed Vice-chairman Stanley Fischer, who also delivered a speech on Monday evening, said signs inflation was stirring might be evident.

“The link has never been very strong, but it exists, and we may well at present be seeing the first stirrings of an increase in the inflation rate -- something that we would like to happen,”

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