Bonds: Top Fed officials sound more cautious note

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Sharecast News | 11 Jul, 2017

These were the movements in some of the most widely-followed 10-year sovereign bond yields:

US: 2.36% (-1bp)
UK: 1.28% (+1bp)
Germany: 0.55% (+1bp)
France: 0.92% (+1bp)
Spain: 1.69% (+2bp)
Italy: 2.32% (+5bp)
Portugal: 3.15% (+2bp)
Greece: 3.15% (+2bp)
Japan: 0.10% (+0bp)

Gilts underperformed slightly as traders waited on the content of a newspaper interview with Monetary Policy Committee member Ben Broadbent early on Wednesday.

In parallel, two top US central bank official appeared to sound a cautious note.

Acting as a backdrop, traders who were carefully watching for any word out of the various central bank speakers who took to the podium might instead have done best to keep their eye on German chancellor Angela Merkel.

Half an hour past noon and in a rare comment on the European Central Bank's policy decisions, Reuters reported that Merkel had told Bavarian industry representatives: "we're not yet back where we want to be in terms of the ECB's monetary policy."

The effects of her remarks were felt most acutely in currency markets, but were nevertheless significant.

For their part, the MPCs Broadbent and Andrew Haldane did not make any policy relevant remarks in separate speeches on Tuesday.

However, the content of an interview with The Press & Journal was to be published at 0700 BST on 12 July and would be published in print the same day.

Who did do so were US Philadelphia Federal Reserve president Patrick Harker and Fed Governor Lael Brainard.

According to the former, the recent slowing in inflation had given him pause, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Harker apparently preferred to start winding down the Fed's balance sheet and to gauge the market reaction before proceeding with another interest rate hike.

Brainard was more direct, while she saw the Fed beginninig to taper its balance sheet "soon", she also thought that the neutra level for the federal funds rate would likely remain at zero.

Hence, "[...] the Fed may not have much additional work to do".

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