BoE keeps interest rates at 0.5% and asset purchases at £375bn, as expected

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has announced it will maintain interest rates at 0.5%.

The Committee has also voted to maintain the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central reserves at £375bn.

"It would now be a surprise if the Bank of England raised interest rates before the latter months of 2015, especially given the disinflationary pressures coming from very low oil prices," said Howard Archer, chief UK & European economist at IHS Global Insight

"It looks highly improbable that there will be an interest rate hike before the May 2015 general election."

Experts believe that with the BoE forecasting inflation to fall below 1.0% in coming months, forcing the governor to write an open letter of explanation to the Chancellor, it is likely that the majority of members remain of the opinion that there is no rush to tighten policy.

Two MPC members, Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty, are thought to have again voted to hike interest rates by 0.25% from their current record low of 0.5%, as they have done continually since August and some analysts indicate that others may be veering towards joining the hawkish camp.

"There is an argument that inflation is currently low only because of the stronger exchange rate and lower global commodity prices, notably oil," said Markit chief economist Chris Williamson.

"Importantly, these are factors the MPC should ‘look through’, or ignore, as they have previously done when they have driven inflation higher in the past."

Williamson added that wage growth may accelerate as unemployment continues to fall, while the jobless rate has dropped from 7.2% at the start of 2014 to 6.0% in the third quarter, with survey data suggesting a further decline is likely in the fourth quarter.

There was also evidence that wages were beginning to grow, with private sector pay growth moving higher from a recent low of 0.9% in the second quarter to 1.6% in the third quarter.

“Wage growth clearly remains weak by historical standards, and well below rates that would normally trigger alarm bells about a feed-through to higher inflation. With global oil prices plummeting, the inflation outlook has also improved," said Williamson.

“What’s more, the pace of economic growth looks to have moderated in recent months. The PMI surveys are signalling gross domestic product growth of 0.6% in the fourth quarter, down from 0.7% in the third quarter."

However, in the current economic climate, changes to the interest rates policy are likely delayed until the second six months of 2015, Williamson said.

“It’s likely, therefore, that the doves will continue to outnumber the hawks for some time to come, meaning it is likely that any hike in interest rates will be delayed until the second half of next year,” he added.