Bookmakers left to wonder where it all went wrong
EU referendum was foregone conclusion according to betting markets
- 90% chance of Remain victory predicted by most bookmakers ahead of cote
- Ladbrokes attempt to explain why result was not predicted by industry
Gambling firms have been left with egg on their face as their 90% probability of a Remain campaign victory in the UK's European Union referendum was quashed with a Leave vote triumphing with 52% of the vote.
In the run up to the referendum, various observers had commented that bookmakers were the best method to have an accurate an analysis of the chances of a Brexit vote. After the inability of opinion polls to predict a Conservative majority in the last general election, they were felt untrustworthy, so people looked to the next best thing: the bookies.
The final tally, announced just after 7 a.m. London time, showed voters backed “Leave” by 52 percent to 48 percent, sending the pound and stock markets plunging. The government’s pro-EU campaign was defeated by more than 1 million ballots, dealing a blow to the notion that betting odds provide a better guide to the direction of political events than polls.
Ladbrokes' head of political betting Matthew Shaddick begged the question - “Is this just one of the inevitable, normal occasions where an outsider wins, or a fatal blow to the idea of betting markets as being a useful forecasting tool?"
“I tend to think the former, but that doesn’t mean we don’t have to reflect on all of their potential flaws," Shaddick added according to Bloomberg.