High migration if UK votes to remain, according to think tank

If Britain votes to remain in the European Union net migration will exceed a quarter a million a year for about 20 years, according to a think tank on Monday, which wants to lower migration.

Migration Watch said in a report that by 2035 an estimated 265,000 migrants will come to the UK, with 60% from the EU resulting in “a massive impact on our population.”

The think tank looked at if Britain votes to remain in the EU and the subsequent 20 years thereafter. The figure excluded average high and low migration scenarios and excluded the chance of Turkey joining the EU. It based the conclusion on current levels of immigration, which in the year to June is 336,000.

In May the Office for National Statistics estimated net migration rose 333,000 in 2015, the second highest figure on record. Net migration is the difference between the number of people coming to the UK for at least a year and those leaving.

The low migration scenario would see EU net migration would fall by 135,000 and only a small number of refugees would settle in the country. This plan would also reduce non-EU migration to 100,000 a year and the number of people migrating away from the UK would stay at 50,000 - total net migration 205,000.

The high migration scenario would see EU net migration rise 220,000 by 2031. In this plan non-EU migration stays at 150,000 a year and UK migration would stay at 50,000 – total net migration 320,000 in 20 years.

“This report is a final wake-up call,” Lord Green Deddington, chairman of Migration Watch said. “Even leaving aside the prospect of Turkey joining the EU, it shows that net migration could still be running at 265,000 a year in 20 years' time.

"This would bring our population to 80 million within 30 years. If we remain in the EU there will be nothing to stop a continuing rapid increase in our population. This would change our country forever against the express wishes of a very large majority of our fellow citizens."

However, Migration Watch said it has not taken either a Leave or Remain position regarding the EU referendum on the 23 June.

Leave campaigner and former work and pensions secretary Iain Duncan Smith said to Sky News: “These figures show that unless you get control of our borders - and we don't have control of our border with the European Union - we've seen net migration rise - over a million have now come and stayed in the UK.

“As migration rises most of the people coming into the UK from the EU are doing low-skill, low-paid jobs and this has driven wage levels down."

James Brokenshire immigration minister said: "David Cameron is in complete agreement with the leaders of the Leave campaign who have admitted Turkey joining the EU isn't remotely on the cards.

"Damaging the economy by quitting Europe is not the answer to the complex issue of immigration."