Johnson and Von der Leyen seek Brexit breakthrough

Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen will hold personal talks this weekend in an attempt to take Brexit trade negotiations into the so-called tunnel phase.

The UK prime minister and the European Commission's president will talk on the phone on Saturday to try to iron out details left unresolved by the final scheduled round of Brexit talks. Johnson's presence on the call will be his first personal involvement since June.

Then he was able to convince the EU that he wanted a deal but his self-imposed deadline of 15 October is only two weeks away. In the meantime the UK has disrupted negotiations by passing legislation that would go against the agreement struck by Johnson in October 2019 and break international law. The EU responded on Thursday by suing the UK.

The UK is trying to push talks into the tunnel stage where both sides' most senior negotiators work in a small group to argue out difficult issues with little outside involvement. Von der Leyen has said she still believes a deal is feasible but that time is running out.

JP Morgan said on Friday that an agreement over EU market access and other trade terms was the most likely outcome but that it would come at a cost for the UK. Johnson hailed his withdrawal deal in 2019 as a triumph but the EU gave little away.

“We continue to think ... that a deal looks more likely than not,” JP Morgan analyst Malcolm Barr said in a note to clients. “The cost of regulatory autonomy for the UK in terms of lost or more difficult access to EU markets looks set to be a high one.”

No deal would be bad for both sides but it would prove particularly chaotic for the UK, which is unprepared for increased border checks at ports. The government is considering how to deal with a potential backlog of thousands of lorries trying to reach the port of Dover.

The UK has already left the EU and a transition period is due to end on 31 December. The UK rejected proposals to extend that deadline to allow more time for talks during the Covid-19 crisis. The main sticking points include Britain's demand for autonomy on state aid for businesses and the EU's access to UK fishing waters.

"Progress has been made in a huge number of areas," Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove told the Daily Express. "There are still one or two sticking points on state aid, the level playing field and fisheries, but I think with goodwill on both sides we will achieve resolution, and I know this government is determined to do so."

He said the UK had "clear red lines" and repeated his mantra from the Brexit referendum campaign that Britain must "take back control".