Govt prepares for Brexit defeat with plans for third 'meaningful vote'

Downing Street is preparing for a third meaningful vote in the House of Commons as it fears another big defeat for Theresa May's Brexit deal next Tuesday, as talks continue in Brussels with no signs of progress.

It was confirmed in parliament on Thursday that the second "meaningful vote" on the Prime Minister's Brexit deal will be held on 12 March.

If it is voted down, MPs to be given a vote on Wednesday 13 March asking whether they support a no-deal Brexit. If they rejected that option, there will be a vote on Thursday 14 March over whether to implement a “short, limited extension” to Brexit.

May was said to be resigned to a second crushing defeat, the Telegraph reported, and is working on plans for a third meaningful vote on the deal, presaged by "a major speech on Friday to plead for support from MPs".

COX'S CODPIECE

British and European Union negotiators have hit a deadlock over a compromise on the Irish backstop late, attorney general Geoffrey Cox admitted to parliament on Thursday, but will resume on Friday.

Answering questions from MPs, Cox said discussions in Brussels are "going to be continuing almost certainly through the weekend and we will endeavour to give the House as early notice as we can if and when we have something to report".

As part of his efforts to persuade the EU to adopt a new legal text to the Withdrawl Agreement, nicknamed 'Cox's codpiece' in the Commons, Cox was reported to have asked for an independent "arbitration panel" system for the Irish backstop, which the EU rejected as it considers a threat to the integrity of the bloc.

“What Britain is asking for goes way beyond where [chief EU negotiator Michel] Barnier can go. It doesn’t look we’re going to bridge the gap any time soon," an EU source told The Sun newspaper.

WIth the Brexit negotiations stalled to a point where May’s meeting with chief EU Commissioner Jean-Claude Juncker this weekend has been put on hold, with many inside and outside Westminster calling for a Brexit delay, the government are fearful of the public reaction if the deal is again voted down on Tuesday.

“If we lose on Tuesday, absolutely everything is going to be s***," one Brexiteer minister told The Sun. “I cannot see how we go forward with whatever softer Brexit that gets imposed on us without the party splitting in two. It will be a complete disaster.”

It is expected that Theresa May will be defeated by up to 100 votes on Tuesday. If this were to happen, parliament is expected to seize control and enforce a softer Brexit after a three-month delay.

AN ACCEPTABLE HARD BREXIT?

The ifo Institute in Munich calculated on Thursday how the United Kingdom can keep the negative economic consequences of a hard Brexit as small as possible: by unilaterally waiving all import duties after March 29.

"That would be a very smart trick for the British government," says Gabriel Felbermayr, head of the ifo Center for International Economics. "Without British import duties, consumption in the Kingdom would fall by only 0.5%, much less than with a hard Brexit with import duties à la World Trade Organization (WTO).

“This would shrink consumption by 2.8%. With comprehensive free trade agreements with many countries à la Global Britain, consumption would still fall by 1.4%.”

In the case of food in particular, Felbermayr said World Trade Organization tariffs would lead to extreme price effects of around 12% to 15%.

According to Felbermayr, the question is whether Great Britain is at all technically capable of implementing comprehensive customs controls on its high imports.