Broker tips: Centrica, Aviva, BP
Citigroup upgraded Centrica to ‘buy’ from ‘neutral’, saying it offers one of the best value propositions among the UK utilities.
“Despite the potential for short-term headwinds from the CMA energy investigation, with potentially negative headlines on tariffs, an end to evergreen tariffs and the introduction of a default tariff, we believe Centrica’s shares are already discounting such risks,” it said.
The bank said that in the context of a flat or falling wholesale commodity price environment, Centrica’s retail business, with its premium brand, should perform well.
Even in the context of increasing retail competition, Citi reckons a 4% EBIT margin is sustainable in the long-term.
It said that with an average free cash flow yield of 8% versus a sustainable dividend yield of 5.3%, as well as potential to beat its £750m cost-cutting target, Centrica is well placed in the context of the sector.
The bank trimmed its price target on the stock to 260p from 265p.
All key metrics at Aviva are moving the right direction Panmure Gordon said on Thursday.
Life value of new business did particularly well, rising by 20% over the past nine months to hit £823m, well above the £764m expected by analysts. General insurance also had a "good" quarter, with the so-called combined ratio falling to 94% from 9.59%.
The ratio is the proportion of an insurer´s losses and expenses as a percentage of underwriting profits, so a figure below 100% indicates profitability.
The integration of Friends Life will deliver much more than the market currently anticipates, analyst Barrie Cornes added.
Furthermore, at £10.1bn the company´s Economic capital surplus was "robust".
The broker added that the insurance group was "probably the most attractive looking" within its coverage universe.
The stock is trading on an IFRS earnings multiple of 9.8 for 2015 versus 15.4 for its peers and at 4.4% the dividend yield is "not meagre".
For all of the above reasons, Panmure Gordon reiterated its recommendation to ´buy´with a target of 660p.
BP performed well in the run-up to the 'mini Strategy Update' on 27 October, Credit Suisse pointed out on Thursday, but in the end most of the points discussed were neither new nor unexpected.
The company´s assertion that 80% of its ´fit for FID (final investment decision)' projects can 'break-even' at less than $60 per barrel is also questionnable, analyst Thomas Adolff said.
Furthermore, the oil major´s underlying thesis that it can go from 'utterly disappointing' project execution to 'perfect execution' from one cycle to the next is "unrealistic", the analyst added.
"There are also question marks surrounding portfolio depth and quality. We do think BP can moderately grow to 2020, but question the outlook beyond with the resource base currently available to the company."
On the basis of the above, Adolff upped his target price on shares of BP to 365p from 350p while maintaining his recommendation on the shares at 'underperform'.