Broker tips: Compass, Prudential, Inmarsat

Jefferies on Monday downgraded its rating on Compass Group to ‘hold’ from ‘buy’ but raised its target price to 1,475p from 1,450p ahead of the catering company’s full year results later this month.

“Although Compass is a quality compounder with attractive total shareholder return credentials, these are well known and prospective price-earnings ratio and free cash flow multiples are elevated relative to history,” Jefferies said.

Looking ahead to the food service provider's full year results on 22 November, Jefferies said it expects figures in line with expectations and unchanged outlook comments.

The broker predicts a 5.2% increase in organic revenue, supported by a 2 basis point rise in earnings before interest, tax and amortisation margin, before £25m restructuring costs. Pre-tax profit is forecast to come to £1.34bn while estimates for earnings per share are at 60.8p and the dividend is expected to be raised 8.2% to 21.2p.

Jefferies’ guidance takes into account increased tailwind from recent foreign exchange rate movements and a reloaded £400-600 share buyback.

“Risks include FX volatility, increasing unemployment, weak commodity markets, management change, food and labour cost inflation,” Jefferies said.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch reiterated its ‘buy’ rating on Prudential, adding the stock to its Europe 1 List, which is its department-wide list of best research ideas.

Merrill pointed out the shares have dropped 26% this year in US dollar terms and said its analysis of the group’s closest peers suggests this is around 20% too much.

“Even on consensus estimates, which we think are 6-7% too low, the shares trade in line with the sector average price-to-earnings. This is despite offering double (9-10%) the sector average earnings per share growth over our forecasting period.”

The bank said it sees around 34% total return potential from the shares, adding that the market is not factoring clear positives, such as the impact of the strengthening greenback, as around two-thirds of Prudential’s earnings are USD or USD-linked.

“The S&P, HSI and FTSE are all up year-to-date. Yet 2017 consensus EPS estimates for Pru have not reacted (actually down YTD). This suggests to us the market is not yet factoring in good news and that now is a particularly attractive buying opportunity.”

Merrill said the stock was suffering mostly on the back of noise around US and Asian regulation, neither of which it reckons present a serious risk to the business.

“We think earnings, solvency, and Asian growth could all surprise on the upside in H2,” it said.

The bank has a 1,710p price target on Pru.

Satellite company Inmarsat rallied on Monday as Barclays upgraded the stock to ‘equalweight’ from ‘underweight’ and lifted the price target by to 860p from 745p.

“Following the stock’s correction year-to-date (down 33% versus the Stoxx Europe 600 telecoms index down 13%), the risk/reward now appears balanced. However given high execution risk, rising competition and a valuation that still factors in sustained growth acceleration, we only upgrade to EW.”

The bank said Inmarsat’s third-quarter results were better than expected, mostly as GX started to deliver. Barclays said group revenue was 2% ahead of expectations, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation were 8% higher.

However, net income was below Barclays’ expectations due to a one-off cost linked to a convertible issuance and early repurchase.

It pointed to the announcement of new contracts with IAG and Air New Zealand, which it said provide some “long-awaited” visibility for revenue growth in 2017-18.

However, Barclays noted the maritime division remains depressed and ISAT indicated a fast ramp-up in aero division costs ahead.