Barclays continues to see ‘material upside’ in BP to 1,000p a share

Barclays said on Tuesday that it expects a positive reaction to the ongoing BP capital markets day.

"We continue to see material upside in the stock to 1,000p a share," it said.

The bank noted that BP is holding a capital markets update in Denver, Colorado. It said a significant amount of detail has been provided on the outlook of the business and will "take time to dig into".

As regards initial thoughts, Barclays pointed out that EBITDA ambitions for 2030 were lifted.

"Whilst 2025 targets remained unchanged, BP lifted its 2030 group ambition for EBITDA by $2bn to $53-58bn driven entirely by an enhanced assessment of its hydrocarbon business which it now expects to deliver $41-44bn by 2030," it said.

In addition, it said that longevity in oil and gas was the focus of the presentation, with BP suggesting that production can grow to 2025 and liquids to 2027 and be sustained both to 2030 and well into the next decade.

"The message here is clear. This is not a business in decline instead having meaningful terminal value," Barclays said.

In terms of resources, BP disclosed that it has 36bn or resources in the upstream, of which 7bn boe are proves and 18bn boe are included in the plan.

"One of the most interesting highlights and one we hadn't thought about was the focus on the Paleogene in the US Gulf of Mexico through the Kaskida and Tiber prospects," Barclays said.

"In a breakout session, the company highlighted a potential for Kaskida starting up in 2028 with production reaching towards 150kb/d. With the growth in bpx volumes, total US production for bp could reach 1mb/d by 2030."

Barclays said the fact there was no update on the financial frame was not unexpected, and that the 2024 update should come in February.

"We do not anticipate a change in rating from S&P this year, but 60% of a higher cashflow number should support buy-back levels," it said. "By 2025 on the current financial frame, net debt could be in the ‘low tens’ which is broadly in line with our own projection given the higher assumed oil price we use for 2025 relative to BP."

Barclays highlighted "a confident display" from the chief executive and chief financial officer, both of whom are currently acting in an interim capacity.

"When asked about the valuation of the shares, CEO Murray, outlined a thesis which is similar to our Decade of Dominance thesis - essentially that the near term will be characterised by energy shortages and volatility with changing perception about the longevity of the oil and gas business driving the initial rerating followed by increased investor recognition of the low carbon business."

Barclays rates BP at ‘overweight’.