Berenberg upbeat on BP long-term, less so on 12-month basis

Analysts at Berenberg sounded a positive note on the long-term prospects for BP as it transitions towards renewable energies.

However, for the company to attain its stated goals for 2030, as per management's strategic update from 14-16 September, it had a lot of hard rowing ahead of it, including "huge" investments.

And even after those, it would take time for investors to buy in.

"The company aims to have 20% of capital employed in transition businesses by 2025; we view this as a reasonable minimum level to achieve before market valuations start to give BP credit for the higher multiple potential of these businesses," they said.

In any case, for over the near-term, that is to say for the next 12 months, the key drivers of the stock would be: progress on asset sales, on reducing net debt, its success in cutting costs, a possible restart of share buybacks and "any recovery in oil prices".

Thus, while Berenberg bumped up its estimates for the outfit's adjusted earnings per share across 2020-22, it lowered its target price from 320.0p to 260.0p, while keeping its recommendation for the stock at 'hold'.