Citi lifts Tesco forecasts as market share continues to rise

Citi has lifted its target price for Tesco shares ahead of the supermarket giant's interim results next month, saying that the retailer's continued market share gains should be reflected in the figures.

The bank has raised its target by to 425p from 350p and reiterated a 'buy' recommendation on the stock.

This month's Kantar market share data showed that Tesco's dominance of the UK grocer market continued to grow, with a 27.8% market share in the 12 weeks to 1 September, up 5.3% on the same period last year and the highest share since January 2022.

Citi predicts that total retail like-for-like (LFL) sales have grown 3.8% in Tesco's second quarter, up from 3.4% in the first, driven by improvements in the UK, Central Europe and the Booker division, offset by a slight slowdown in the Republic of Ireland (ROI).

The second-quarter acceleration is "supported by low-single-digit UK food inflation, and four straight quarters of UK market share gains", Citi said.

As a result, the bank's forecast for full-year earnings before interest and tax has risen by 1% to £2.867bn, compared with Tesco's own guidance of at least £2.8bn.