Citi reiterates ‘buy’ rating on Centrica

Citi reiterated its ‘buy’ rating on British Gas owner Centrica on Friday as it argued that the stock’s tepid share price performance in recent days despite the tailwind from a solid trading statement is a reflection of positioning rather than concerns on fundamentals.

"We expect Centrica to outline its sustainable level of EBIT at 1H23, which we expect to be range £1.0-1.1bn, implying an earnings per share of circa 12- 13p," the bank said.

"This compares favourably to FY26 consensus EPS currently at 10p. We expect this medium-term guidance to provide earnings and cashflow visibility and, together with clarity on capital allocation strategy (including a further £0.75bn cash return) and investment return hurdle rates, we expect both to underpin current valuation and drive a continued re-rating of the shares."

Citi also said it sees FY23 EPS guidance as very conservative, with little sign of price competition despite marginal uptick in churn and market stabilisation mechanism/ban on acquisition tariffs still in play.