Greene King to be big winner among World Cup hopefuls, analysts say

Greene King will be the leisure sector's biggest winner if England do well in the FIFA World Cup while Restaurant Group and Mitchells and Butlers are likely to fare worst, according to Berenberg analysts.

After talking to management at companies they cover, the Berenberg leisure team found most businesses planning for England to play four matches, going out in the first knockout phase.

A company with 100% football-based pubs would gain at least three trading days under this scenario as fans drink and eat while watching England games, which kick off on 18 June, the analysts said.

No company is that football oriented but Greene King, which makes a feature of football across its managed pubs, would be the biggest gainer. Berenberg has a ‘sell’ rating on Greene King and recommends investors sell the shares on any World Cup-inspired gains. City Pub Company, Fuller’s, JD Wetherspoon and, to a lesser extent, Marston’s should also benefit along with Domino’s Pizza.

Restaurant Group and Mitchells and Butlers, which focus on casual dining, are most vulnerable to consumers opting for drink-led pubs or takeaways at home, Berenberg said. Cineworld and bowling operators Hollywood Bowl and Ten Entertainment are also potential losers though only about 15% of Cineworld’s business is in the UK after a recent US acquisition. The bowling companies do not report quarterly data and can spread the impact over a longer period, the analysts added.