JP Morgan sees lower political risk in Mexico for Fresnillo, stays 'overweight'

Analysts at JP Morgan sounded a confident note on the outlook for precious metals miner Fresnillo ahead of the next presidential elections in Mexico.

The latest polls were showing a wide roughly 20 percentage point lead for Claudia Sheinbaum, the candidate for the Morena coalition, over her rival Xochitl Galvez.

However, the analysts believed the outcome would be "marginally more balanced" than polls suggested.

"Thus, in a scenario of narrower victory, we could see a stronger system of checks & balances as it requires two-thirds majority in Congress to pass constitutional reforms," they said.

"Thus, we see relatively lower risks of legislation or constitutional changes which could be negative for miners or pose potentially negative implications for mining investment compared to previously."

As well, year-to-date gold and silver price gains of 14% and 34%, respectively, meant that Fresnillo shares were offering a mark-to-market upgrade on its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation of more than 20%.

They were also changing on hands on 5.0 and 4.4 times, respectively, their sport EV/EBITDA multiples for 2024 and 2025, compared to a mid-cycle average of approximately.

The analysts also referenced their recent decision to revise their long-term price forecast for gold from $1,600/oz. to $1,800/oz..