JPMorgan places Ryanair on ‘positive catalyst watch’ ahead of CMD

JPMorgan Cazenove placed Ryanair on ‘positive catalyst watch’ on Thursday ahead of the airline’s capital markets day on 5 September, as it expects it to highlight the strengths of its business model and how it might achieve a circa 30% intra-European share by 2034.

At the CMD, JPM expects Ryanair to focus on the longer-term growth story out to 2034 following its new 300 aircraft Boeing order in May.

"As the No.1 carrier by market share in intra-Europe (a position that has increased during the pandemic), the over-arching question going forward for the story is ‘where does future growth come from?’, over and beyond growing in line with the market," JPM said.

"In our view: (1) There is little scope for new markets for Ryanair in Europe. However, we see opportunities for expansion in Domestic Spain, and in large W. European International markets such as the UK, Spain and Germany. (2) That means taking share off incumbents (unless Ryanair is able to stimulate new demand on currently unserved routes)."

JPM estimates that legacy carriers still occupy the No.1 position in 43% of Ryanair’s markets, the majority of which are not the largest listed carriers.

The bank said it was not making any estimate changes and kept its ‘overweight’ rating on the shares and €24.50 price target.