JPMorgan sees bags of potential from Royal Mail but trims target

JP Morgan Cazenove cut its price target for Royal Mail shares as it shares the market's newfound caution on the UK consumer outlook.

But Cazeove, which kept its 'overweight' rating, sees the postal operator as "partially shielded" by the ongoing growth in e-commerce and an apparent moderating in Amazon's in-sourcing and reduction in export volume pressures in light of the weaker pound.

"In UK parcels, the market is skewed toward lighter average weights (up to 2kg) - the sweet spot for RMG’s core network with larger items served by Parcelforce.

"We believe these factors, along with stronger account and tracked product growth, underpinned RMG's decision to upgrade its addressable market growth outlook in May."

Ahead of the first quarter trading update, analysts flag tougher mail and GLS volume, easier UK parcel volume and price/mix comparatives from last year.

For the full year Cazenove expects UK parcel volume growth of 2.7% up from 2.6% last time, also noting slightly easier first-half comparatives, with first quarter volumes seen growing 3.5%.

With the shares opening the week at 410p after the consumer-spending wobble fall on Friday, the target price was trimmed to 550p from 565p.