JPMorgan upgrades Trainline to 'overweight'

Trainline surged on Friday as JPMorgan Cazenove lifted the shares to ‘overweight’ from ‘neutral’ and upped the price target to 300p from 295p, pointing in part to an attractive valuation.

The bank noted that Trainline shares have de-rated relative to classifieds peers, likely driven by investor concerns on the complexity around changes in UK rail regulation, which overshadows strong passenger momentum.

"In this note, we assess potential outcomes from the UK rail reform and conclude limited financial impact, even on (we believe) highly cautious scenarios, with a £8m EBITDA loss potential overall (circa 6% of group adjusted EBITDA FY26E)," it said.

"Meanwhile, we flag upside risk from 1) rapidly rising online share in the UK with Trainline the key beneficiary, and 2) increasing carrier fragmentation in Europe driving online ticket sales momentum."

JPM said its 2025/26 EBITDA estimates are 6%/8% ahead of Bloomberg consensus on high visibility, low macro exposure, and an attractive valuation.

At 1210 BST, the shares were up 7.1% at 247.60p.