Numis adds Virgin Money, Derwent and Northgate to 'top picks' list

Numis sell-side analysts provided a list of their top picks among large and small cap stocks across the market, including ARM Holdings, Virgin Money, Derwent London, Tullow Oil, Northgate and Vectura.

After another strong set of quarterly results, ARM remains the top pick as Numis believes the recent investments should be taken as a sign of confidence that historic growth rates can be sustained as ARM deepens its value add in existing markets and continues to address new markets.

"The analyst meeting indicated confidence in further growth in mobile despite slower growth in smartphone volumes, with growth coming from higher royalties with increased performance as with v8, multiple cores and additional IP," the broker said, with strong prospects in enterprise infrastructure and 'embedded intelligence'.

The stock trades at a p/e of 28.8x, below the bottom of the 30-55x historic range, whereas prospects to sustain earnings growth at least in the high teens "continue to remain very strong".

Virgin Money was added to the list on the view that it will continue to benefit from both strong earnings growth and improving return on tangible equity (ROTE) while markets remain favourable and mainstream competition is "distracted/restricted".

"Furthermore, improved utilisation of the operating infrastructure acquired from Northern Rock should, in our view, underpin significant balance sheet growth for very little incremental cost." A target price of 490p is more than £1 above the current market price.

Derwent London is another new addition to the top picks portfolio, replacing British Land, with the comment that its return profile evolved through FY15 with the mix of returns has shifting from yields to estimated rental value (ERV) growth.

ERVs have been accelerating since early 2013, they remain some way below levels seen in 2006 but, while slowing, are thought likely to remain positive through to 2019.

"Rising construction capacity constraints and cost inflation increase the likelihood of delays across the broader London development pipeline but DLN has locked in construction packages and costs, in sterling-terms, on three of its four live developments, and is close to finalising the remaining package for 80 Charlotte St."

While there are macro uncertainties such as the mayoral election and Brexit vote, a strong balance sheet, an attractive development pipeline and significant organic reversion off low passing rents, gives analysts confidence in their 3,850p target price.

Tullow, despite being among the most shorted stocks on the FTSE, remains in the list on analysts belief that Tullow "could be ideally positioned for a future recovery in oil prices", as it is able to withstand a period of low oil prices while completing its major development project, the TEN field offshore Ghana where first oil is due in the middle of this year.

On Vectura, Numis set a price target of 264p, offering around 60% updside to the current price on a 12-month view as the respiratory specialist merges with peer Skyepharma in "one of the most complementary mergers in the UK Healthcare sector", as the enlarged group has competitive advantages in both drug delivery and respiratory formulations and offers exposure to several emerging royalty streams through partnerships with Big Pharma partners.

"Vectura specifically benefits from Skyepharma's fast growing earnings and cash-flow, which will, in our opinion, accelerate the enlarged group's transition to being a specialist pharmaceutical company with the financial strength to commercialise novel drugs and devices in niche segments itself."

House stock Northgate is another new name on the list, with a target price of 560p as the shares are felt to offer an "attractive combination of cyclical and selfhelp growth drivers, income attractions, and a valuation that reflects the historic
changes to the depreciation rates and UK operational issues, rather than the scope for further improvement".