Commodities: Oil flops on production jitters as gold tumbles

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Sharecast News | 11 Nov, 2016

Crude oil futures were firmly lower on Friday afternoon as OPEC revealed yet another spike in output for October, with safe-haven gold declining as US election uncertainties abate.

OPEC figures confirm the cartel pumped 33.64m barrels a day in October, a rise from September's 240,000 and the highest in eight years amid a global supply glut.

The market is questioning whether OPEC will enforce output limits when it meets later this month in Vienna. A constriction of supply would boost prices.

At about 15:30 GMT, Nymex-quoted West Texas Intermediate was down 2.15% to $43.7 a barrel, with Intercontinental Exchange-traded Brent down 2.01% to $44.92 a barrel.

"The International Energy Agency warned yesterday that global supply growth could continue into 2017 as OPEC members produce 33.8m bpd," said Accendo Markets analysts Mike van Dulken and Henry Croft.

This was well above the proposed upper supply limit promised at Algiers in September. "Can the oil industry’s largest producer group refocus its efforts to cut production at their meeting in Vienna, now less than three weeks away?"

FXTM Research analyst Lukman Otunuga said sentiment towards oil remained bearish.

"Steeper declines (are) expected in the coming weeks as a strengthening dollar amid renewed US rate hike expectations provides a fresh opportunity for sellers to attack," Otunuga said.

"From a technical standpoint, a breakdown below $44 could trigger a sell-off towards $43."

Meantime, metals silver and gold were lower, but their industrial counterparts enjoyed upticks on the hope of US infrastructure spending and as the dollar made headway.

After opening Friday on a sideways note, gold's decline steepened into the afternoon.

"It (gold) is on course for its first weekly decline in four weeks as US election uncertainty abates and the US dollar recovers to near nine-month highs, making the safe-haven more expensive," said van Dulken and Croft.

"Fears that a (Donald) Trump presidency could postpone any Fed rate hikes have been obliterated in the aftermath of his surprise victory, putting increased pressure on the monetary policy-sensitive metal," they added.

At about 15:30 GMT on Comex, gold was down 2.53% to $1234 an ounce, which was below key support of about $1250 an ounce. Silver flopped 4.15% to $17.96 an ounce. Copper rose 0.61% to 256.65 cents a pound.

Three-month industrial metals on London Metals Exchange gained, too. Copper was up a barnstorming 3.47% to to $5601 a MT. Aluminum, zinc and tin made gains of roughly 1%.

In agricultural futures, Chicago Board of Trade-listed corn fell 1.16% to 339.5 cents a bushel, while wheat ebbed 0.74% to 401.75 cents a bushel.

On ICE, corn firmed 0.49% to $2453 a MT, with cotton No.2 up 0.03% to 69.22 cents a pound. Live cattle was up 0.02% to 104.53 cents a pound.

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