Commodities: Brent bounces back on talk of smaller output hike from OPEC+

Commodities were little changed at the start of the week, with a rebound in Brent crude oil futures offsetting weakness in the agricultural space.

Oil futures had come under heavy selling pressure on Friday amid speculation that Saudi and Russia were set to push through a hefty increase in production at the next OPEC ministerial meeting, on 20-21 June.

Yet according to Capital Economics, the main trigger behind the selling had been a Chinese threat to impose tariffs on US oil exports if Washington ratcheted up the trade spat.

Come Monday however, Bloomberg was reporting that OPEC was mulling a smaller compromise deal for an increase in the group's - including Russia - combined output of between 300,000 and 600,000 barrels per day over the next few months.

Meanwhile, and regarding the threat of Chinese sanctions, Capital Economics said they would not have a significant on global oil demand, nor did the consultancy anticipate a slump in world trade.

Increased tariffs on the other hand, especially on commodity imports, would pose a "clear downside risk", Capital Economics said.

Likewise, prices might retreat if China opted to source more oil from Iran or if it scaled back purchases for its strategic reserves, for which it had been purchasing supplies at a pace of around 0.5m b/d over the first four months of the year.

Against that backdrop, as of 2026 BST front month Brent crude oil futures were adding 2.60% to $75.35 a barrel, alongside gains of 2.18% to $2.1325 a gallon for July 2018-dated NYMEX heating oil futures.

In parallel, the US dollar index was trading just 0.01% higher to 94.7940, while the Bloomberg commodity index was 0.09% lower at 87.63.

In the agricultural space, September wheat on CBoT was down by 2.34% to $5.0150 a bushel, while ICE-traded cotton was retreating 2.31% to $0.8777 per pound.