Commodities: Crude oil rises after EIA data, ahead of Opec meet on Thursday

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Sharecast News | 24 May, 2017

Crude-oil futures got a boost higher on Wednesday afternoon thanks to further confirmation that US inventories fell last week, in a market pensive ahead of tomorrow's Opec meeting.

At 15:44 BST, Nymex-priced West Texas Intermediate crude was up 0.56% to $51.76 a barrel. Intercontinental Exchange-traded Brent rose 0.57% to $54.46 a barrel.

The Energy Information Administration data out this afternoon showed US crude stores fell 4.4m barrels in the week to 19 May, versus views for a 2.4m drop.

American Petroleum Institute data on Tuesday also revealed a fall in US crude stores.

The EIA data helped vault both grades of crude firmly higher.

The market remains cautious ahead of Thursday's Opec meeting in Vienna, with hopes pinned on the cartel extending its production curbs into 2018.

Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda, said the rally in recent weeks would "certainly suggest" traders had bought into the prospect of an Opec curb extension already.

"WTI and Brent (had been left) very vulnerable to the downside should participating members fail to come to an agreement," he warned.

"With Saudi Arabia and Russia appearing on board though, the chance of a deal not materialising seems slim."

FXTM research analyst Lukman Otunuga said WTI crude was likely to appreciate higher if Opec and non-Opec producers extend the current output cut deal by another nine months, the question remains of how US Shale will react.

"I believe that US Shale is a significant threat to the Opec deal, especially when considering how the surging output from the US has seized market share from other Opec members," he said

"The bearish sentiment towards oil remains intact amid the oversupply concerns with the 'prisoner's dilemma' between Opec and US Shale limiting upside gains.

"While it may be too early to say that this is the end of OPEC, U.S Shale has considerably weakened the cartel's grip on the global markets."

Neil Wilson, senior market analyst at ETX Capital, pondered whether oil bulls were set for Opec disappointment.

"With crude rallying firmly this month already, bulls might have had their chips unless the cartel can spring a surprise that lifts Brent above its current range."

Meanwhile, at about 15:37 BST, on Comex, gold was down 0.15% to $1253.6 an ounce. Silver fell 0.17% to $17.11 an ounce, and copper fell 0.37% to 258.65 cents a pound.

"Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday as the combination of profit taking and a slightly appreciating dollar attracted short-term bears to attack," said Otunuga.

"Regardless of the recent declines, Gold remains supported on the daily charts with the persistent Trump uncertainties limiting downside losses.

"While Gold could face some punishment this evening if the Federal Reserve minutes cement expectations of a June rate hike, the Trump jitters should instill enough encouragement for bulls to remain in control in the medium to longer term."

On London Metals Exchange, three-month industrial metals were mostly rising. Zinc added 0.93%, aluminum firmed 0.26%, copper gained 0.19% and tin advanced 0.1%.

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