IEA trims global oil demand forecasts

The International Energy Agency trimmed its forecasts for global oil demand on Thursday, on the back of "persistent" macroeconomic headwinds.

The Paris-based authority expects global oil demand to climb by 2.2m barrels per day (bpd) this year to 102.1m bpd, a record high

However, it is a 220,000 bpd reduction on its previous 2023 estimate, published last month.

The IEA said: "Persistent macroeconomic headwinds, apparent in a deepening manufacturing slump, have led us to revise our 2023 growth estimate lower for the first time this year."

China is expected to account for 70% of global gains, it noted, but OECD consumption was set to "remain anaemic".

Growth is expected to slow to 1.1m bpd in 2024, as the global economic recovery loses momentum and as "ever-greater vehicle fleet electrification and efficiency measures take hold".

The IEA said world oil supply had risen by 480,000 bpd to 101.8m bpd in June but would fall now "sharply", as Saudi Arabia - the de-facto head of oil cartel Opec - plans to slash output by 1m bpd later this month.

The IEA expects global oil production to increase by 1.6m bpd in 2023 to 101.5m bpd, as non-Opec+ countries expands by 1.9m bpd.

Russian exports fell by 600,000 bpd in June, to 7.3m bpd, their lowest since March 2021.