Friday preview: China economic growth data in focus

China’s economic growth data for the first quarter will be in the spotlight on Friday amid concerns about the nation’s slowdown.

Analysts expect gross domestic product eased to 6.7% year-on-year growth in the first quarter compared to 6.8% the previous three months. If the estimates are correct, it will mark the slowest quarterly expansion since GDP rose 6.2% in the first quarter of 2009, during the global financial crisis.

Beijing has set a GDP target of 6.5% to 7% for this year. GDP rose 6.9% in 2015, the weakest pace in a quarter of a century.

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday said China’s slowdown may not be as severe as first thought, revising its economic growth forecasts to 6.5% this year and 6.2% next year, both up two-tenths of a percentage point from the last outlook in January.

Recent data has pointed to stronger growth in the world’s second largest economy.

China exports rose for the first time in nine months in March by 11.5%, according to the General Administration of Customs, compared to a 25.4% drop in February. Imports also fell at a slower pace than the previous month, down 7.6% in March compared to a 13.8% decline in February.

Caixin’s China services purchasing mangers’ index for services activity rose to 52.2 in March from 51.2 in February, above the 50 level that separates a contraction from an expansion.

China’s manufacturing PMI increased to 50.2 in March from 49.0 in March, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the first time is has reached above 50 in eight months.

“Despite some signs of domestic demand stabilisation, risks to economic growth are still on the downside, as external demand was softer than expected and ongoing restructuring of the economy, such as the reduction of overcapacities will put additional pressure on growth in the near term,” HSBC economists said in a note.

Friday 15 April

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