Friday preview: Jackson Hole, UK and US GDP, Japanese inflation

Friday will mark a busy end to a quiet week with the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated annual conference, UK and US economic growth data and Japanese inflation figures.

The Fed’s Jackson Hole conference is the main event, with analysts hoping chair Janet Yellen’s speech delivers hints on whether the central bank will raise interest rates this year. Yellen is due to speak at 1500 BST.

“This event has often been used to warn about upcoming policy changes and whether that is the next hike or a more dovish Fed, we’ll have to wait and see,” said Craig Erlam, chief market analyst at Oanda.

“After all the build up to the event, I wouldn’t be surprised if Yellen once again keeps her cards very close to her chest and the whole things becomes something of an anti-climax.”

The US will also be kept preoccupied with second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data from the Commerce Department at 1330 BST. Economists expect GDP will be revised to an annualised rise of 1.1% in the second quarter, compared to preliminary estimate of 1.2% growth. First quarter GDP increased 0.8%.

The UK also sees its release of second quarter GDP data from the Office for National Statistics at 0930 BST. The second estimate of economic growth is forecast to remain unchanged from the initial estimate for an annualised 2.2% and quarterly 0.6%. It compares to GDP in the first quarter of 2.1% year-on-year and 0.4% quarter-on-quarter growth.

“A disappointing GDP figure may renew speculations over the Bank of England cutting UK interest rates to near zero before year end,” said FXTM research analyst Lukman Otunuga.

Elsewhere, the Japanese consumer price index (CPI) will be closely eyed amid speculation of further stimulus measures to come from the central bank to address deflation and a slowing economy. Economists expect Japan remained in deflation in July with a year-on-year drop in CPI of 0.4%, unchanged from the previous month.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has said he wouldn't rule out deepening negative rates to help spur inflation and economic growth.

"Slowing inflation could increase speculation that the BoJ will take action and put downward pressure on the yen," said Marshall Gittler, head of investment research at FXPrimus.

Friday August 26

INTERIMS
Computacenter, Lavendon Group, Marshalls, Restaurant Group

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aberdeen UK Tracker Trust, Beazley, Entu (UK) , Jupiter Fund Management , Microgen, Nichols, Relx plc

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
GLI Alternative Finance , Primary Health Properties

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
GDP (Preliminary) (US) (13:30)
GFK Consumer Confidence (GER) (07:00)
M3 Money Supply (EU) (09:00)

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Manchester & London Investment Trust

AGMS
Bilby, Naspers Ltd. ADR, Yujin International Ltd. (DI)

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
GDP (Preliminary) (09:30)
Index of Services (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
GB Group, Halfords Group, Latham (James), Northern Bear, Octopus Apollo VCT, UK Mail Group