Friday preview: US inflation in focus, DCC and Hays report

Friday will see a barrage of top-tier economic data releases in the US, including readings on consumer price inflation, industrial production and retail sales, while UK is quiet on the data front but investors can peruse numbers from DCC, Ashmore and Hays.

US CPI is the big one, to be released at 1330 BST and in the spotligh after falling short of consensus forecasts for the last three months and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen telling Congress this week that there was uncertainty among her fellow rate-setters about how inflation would respond to shrinking slack in the economy.

If inflation does not rebound, economists feel the Fed may slow its pace of monetary normalisation.

The consensus estimate is for June's headline CPI to rise 0.1% on the month from a 0.1% a month before, with the annual figure easing to 1.7% from 1.9% in May.

Core inflation, which strips out more volatile prices, is seen increasing to 0.2% from 0.1% month-on-month, and remaining at 1.7% on an annual basis.

"We expect inflation pressures to remain solid, as labor markets continue to tighten and the dollar and commodity prices are broadly stable, although the softness in recent months presents some downside risks to our view," said Barclays, in line with consensus apart from expecting headline CPI to be unchanged on the month.

HSBC also expects unchanged headline figure on a monthly basis due to the 3% decline in the average price of gasoline, also noting numerous factors weighing on prices over this period, including decelerating prices on rents, airfares, presctiption drugs and cell phone plans, plus soft new and used vehicle prices.

Retail sales will be released at the same time, with the consensus expectation for total sales to rise 0.1% m/m after falling 0.3% a month before.

Holding back June's sales will be the recent fall in motor vehicle and gasoline station sales.

HSBC also forecast total retail and food services sales rose 0.1% in June but its forecast of a 0.1% increase in ex-
autos sales is shy of the 0.2% consensus.

For industrial production, the consensus is for a 0.4% increase on the month.

COMPANY REPORTS

DCC will report a short trading statement covering its first quarter alongside its annual shareholder meeting.

The quarter is typically a quieter period of the year for DCC with energy volumes seasonally weighted towards winter.

UBS predicted the company will still confirm full year expectations of earnings before interest, tax and amortisation of £375m and reiterate integration plans for recent M&A.

Hays will update on its fourth quarter as it aims to hit full year profits in a £200-209m consensus range.

UBS expects 6% like-for-like net fee growth versus 10% in the period quarter and consensus at 5%.

"We expect the UK to show further signs of stabilisation as the private sector continues to show tentative signs of recovery. International growth should continue to be strong in almost all regions as Germany and Australia continue to grow at a face pace at 14% and 11% respectively."

Ashmore is also scheduled to report a fourth-quarter statement on assets under management, which includes its quarter-end AUM balances and flows.

UBS expects the quarter’s inflows to be US$1.2bn, following the US$1.4bn Ashmore booked in March which marked a turnaround point as the first quarter of net inflows since June 2014.

Friday July 14

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (EU) (11:00)
Consumer Price Index (US) (13:30)
Retail Sales (US) (13:30)

TRADING STATEMENTS
FirstGroup

EGMS
Bahamas Petroleum Co

AGMS
DCC, Kemin Resources, NewRiver REIT, Workspace Group, ZCCM Investments Holdings 'B' Shares

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aberdeen Japan Investment Trust , Anglo-Eastern Plantations, C&C Group, Marks & Spencer Group, New Century AIM VCT 2, Pets at Home Group , ProVen Growth & Income VCT, ProVen VCT, Scisys, TBC Bank Group, Telford Homes, Triple Point Income VCT, Triple Point Income VCT A, Triple Point Income VCT C, Triple Point Income VCT D

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Britvic, Elegant Hotels Group , Maven Income & Growth 3 VCT, Maven Income & Growth 4 VCT, Maven Income & Growth VCT, Topps Tiles

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Regional REIT Limited, Schlumberger Ltd.

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Electra Private Equity, Taylor Wimpey, Triple Point Income VCT