Thursday preview: MPC unlikely to ratchet-up rate hike expectations?

The spotlight will be squarely on the Monetary Policy Committee as it announces its decision on Bank Rate and Bank's Asset Purchase Facility, alongside the latest quarterly Inflation Report.

Investors will be keen to assess how rate-setters' policy bias might have shifted - if at all - given the recent volatility in global capital markets and following the recent string of poor readings on the economy across the Channel, in the euro area, the UK's largest trading partner.

As if that were not enough, the risk that the US -China trade spat is set to intensify and the impact of Washington's Iran sanctions on the oil price may have 'muddied the waters' further, not to mention the still unknown endgame of Britain's withdrawal from the European Union.

Offsetting those to an extent perhaps, investors may also be keen to know how Bank assesses the Chancellor's decision to bring forward tax cuts for lower and middle income households by a year and its view on the most recent economic data in the UK, especially as regards the jobs market and the the outlook for wages.

Will they, won't they?

According to Kallum Pickering at Berenberg, Thursday's MPC meeting and IR would most likely yield "no surprises", with the next hike in Bank Rate most likely arriving in May 2019.

Yet if Brexit talks are successful and the wage data continued to improve, then the MPC might opt to move as soon as next February, he said.

Nevertheless, Pickering believed the former scenario was the most likely of the two.

"But as the BoE would have plenty opportunity to prepare markets for a hike early next year once Brexit is settled, we do not expect the bank to turn more hawkish at the upcoming November Inflation Report on Thursday already," Pickering said.

"Markets would, and should, take any upgrade to the economic outlook as a hawkish signal. Following the recent increase in the oil price, the BoE may raise its near-term inflation forecast. However, as the higher oil price is an external rather than domestic driver of inflation, higher inflation due to this factor alone should not be taken as a hawkish signal."

For his part, Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics pointed out that the macroeconomic forecasts contained in the latest IR were now outdated, having most likely been compiled by BoE staff before the Autumn Budget, where the Chancellor outlined his new tax cuts.

Nevertheless, Tombs went on to explain that: "At the very least, then, the MPC will be considering whether they should attempt to steer markets to expect a faster pace of monetary tightening than they currently are pricing-in. We doubt, however, that the MPC will feel compelled to ratchet up its rhetoric on interest rate rises right now [given the dampening impact on confidence in the run-up to Brexit in March]."

However, it was possible - albeit not the most likely scenario - that MPC member Michael Saunders might cast a dissenting vote.

Big Oil will again be in focus on the corporate side of things, with Royal Dutch Shell set to update shareholders on its third quarter performance.

According to UBS analyst, Jon Rigby, the Anglo-Dutch oil major "desperately" needs a good quarter, with investors wondering whether the company has "taken its eye off the ball" given the recent string of poor quarters at the outfit, even as it upgraded its medium-term targets last November.

"An attractive medium term strategy is in danger of being undermined by quarterly delivery – worryingly this is a pattern we have seen before with previous strategy cycles," Rigby told clients.

His forecast was for a cash outflow from operations of $10.7bn following working capital and other adjustments.

BT Group is also due out with results, with Numis's John Karidis forecasting second quarter operating profits on an EBITDA basis of £1,799m, which was a tad ahead of the consensus.

In his opinion, the risk to consensus estimates for the company's profits and free cash flow from equity were to the upside, pointing out that the share's static valuation multiples were too low.

Linked to the above, Karidis also pointed out that the telecommunications group was set to host a sell-side Q&A event with its finance chief and Regulatory Affairs Director on 12 October.

Thursday November 01

INTERIMS

BT Group

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Arena Events Group

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Bloomsbury Publishing, Braemar Shipping Services, C&C Group, Hilton Food Group, London Security, Mission Marketing Group, Montanaro UK Smaller Companies Inv Trust, Morgan Advanced Materials , Senior, SThree, U And I Group, Warpaint London

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE

Mercantile Investment Trust (The)

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE

APQ Global Limited, JPMorgan Claverhouse Inv Trust, Tufton Oceanic Assets Limited NPV, Unilever

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Auto Sales (US) (19:30)

Construction Spending (US) (16:00)

ISM Manufacturing (US) (14:00)

ISM Prices Paid (US) (14:00)

PMI Manufacturing (US) (14:45)

Q3

Carpetright, Croda International, Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (CDI), Indivior, Just Eat , Lancashire Holdings Limited, Royal Dutch Shell 'A', Royal Dutch Shell 'B', Royal Dutch Shell 'B', Royal Dutch Shell 'B', Royal Dutch Shell 'B', Shires Income, Smith & Nephew

GMS

Patisserie Holdings

SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

ProVen Growth & Income VCT, ProVen VCT, Ranger Direct Lending Fund, Softcat

AGMS

City of London Inv Trust, Go-Ahead Group, Pathfinder Minerals , Plutus PowerGen, Schroder Japan Growth Fund, Stanley Gibbons Group, Wilmington

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Carpetright, Hilton Food Group, Just Eat

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

BoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

1pm, Smith (DS)

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Ashmore Group, BlackRock Greater Europe Inv Trust, Ideagen, NWF Group, SCS Group , Softcat, Thorpe (F.W.)