Thursday preview: Bank of England, China trade data in the spotlight

The Bank of England's latest policy decision will be front and centre on Thursday with quite a few economists - albeit not all - increasingly anticipating interest rate cuts sooner rather than later.

In the case of those at Bank of America, the Monetary Policy Committee was set to stay put by with a 7-2 vote in favour.

Dave Ramsden and Swati Dinghra were expected to be the ones voting for a 25 basis point cut.

"But we should see in the minutes a continuation of the pivot towards cuts. Forecasts are likely to reflect that," said BofA in a research note sent to clients.

"Given hawkish market pricing (Chart of the day) we would expect inflation slightly below target by 2026, leaving the door open for a cut in the next few meetings, including June."

In response to that possibility, over the past few weeks speculators had ramped up their net short positions on Sterling to 29,000 contracts, the most since January 2023, CFTC data for up to 30 April showed.

J.P.Morgan Asset Management's Karen Ward on the other hand noted how indicators for domestic inflation over the medium-term were "significantly" above Bank's 2.0% target.

Furthermore, the economy wasn't slowing, rather the opposite.

Hence, she was expecting the MPC to look through a short-term dip in UK inflation, Dow Jones Newswires reported. Come the end of summer and rate-setters might have more proof that underlying price pressures were abating, she added, but not at present.

Refinitiv data showed money markets are pricing in a first rate cut for come August with 54bp of cuts seen across what remained of 2024.

Worth noting, BoE chief economist Huw Pill was scheduled to deliver a speech at 1615 GMT.

Other key risk events during the session would include Chinese foreign trade data due out overnight, weekly US jobless claims figures and the US Treasury's 30-year debt auction at 1700 GMT.

On the corporate side of things meanwhile, 3i Group will post its 2024 results.

The investment outfit's latest net asset value per share will be in focus, said UBS analyst Haley Tam, together with any commentary around its Private Equity and Infrastructure portfolio performance.

Tam's estimate was for NAV per share of 2,076.0p, against the consensus on 2,107.0p.

Thursday 09 May

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (DI), Fidelity Special Values, Focusrite, Gresham Technologies, Tracsis

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Chenavari Toro Income Fund Limited NPV, Custodian Property Income Reit, Picton Property Income Ltd

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)

Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)

GMS

Catenai, Corcel

FINALS

Airtel Africa

SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Admiral Group, Custodian Property Income Reit, HSBC Holdings, Sylvania Platinum Ltd (DI)

AGMS

BAE Systems, Balfour Beatty, Barclays, Barclays, CAB Payments Holdings, Clarkson, FBD Holdings (CDI), Genel Energy, Harbour Energy , Inchcape, Indivior, Irish Continental Group Units (Comp) (CDI), Jupiter Fund Management , Logistics Development Group, Man Group, Morgan Advanced Materials , OSB Group , Public Policy Holding Company, Inc.(DI), Rathbones Group, RM, Robinson, Spire Healthcare Group, Synthomer, The Gym Group, Uniphar (CDI), Wood Group (John)

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Balfour Beatty, Wood Group (John)

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

BoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Domino's Pizza Group, F&C Investment Trust, Grafton Group Ut (CDI), Travis Perkins

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Admiral Group, Aurora Investment Trust, Bank of Ireland Group (CDI), Barr (A.G.), Bellevue Healthcare Trust (Red), Centaur Media, Clarkson, CVC Income & Growth Limited NPV Euro, CVC Income & Growth Limited NPV GBP, Epwin Group, Headlam Group, Ibstock , Invesco Perpetual UK Smaller Companies Inv Trust, Lancashire Holdings Limited, LSL Property Services, M&C Saatchi, Macfarlane Group, Midwich Group, One Media IP Group, Petershill Partners , Reach, SThree

Q1

Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.NPV (CDI)