Thursday preview: Bank of England's 'Super Thursday' in the spotlight

The Bank of England’s so-called ‘Super Thursday’ will be in focus with the release of the central bank’s interest rate decision, policy meeting minutes and inflation report.

The BoE is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged after better-than-expected economic growth data in the third quarter, which was seen to show resilience after the Brexit vote.

“Until very recently it had been looking an extremely tight call as to whether or not the Bank of England would deliver another interest rate cut at the 3 November meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC),” said Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight.

“Indeed, we had envisaged a spirited discussion within the MPC and very likely a split vote - probably in favour of no change in policy. However, resilient UK GDP growth of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter has highly likely ensured that the Bank of England will be sitting tight on monetary policy on Thursday and into 2017.”

IHS believes the Bank may cut rates to 0.10% from 0.25% in the first half of 2017 after Prime Minister Theresa May kicks off official Brexit negotiations by triggering Article 50. However, it doubts the BoE will take rates any lower than 0.10%.

“(Governor) Mark Carney’s aversion to negative interest rates has been highly evident, while the minutes of the September MPC meeting significantly indicated that ‘a little above zero’ is the ‘effective lower bound’,” Archer said.

The meeting minutes, released alongside Thursday’s policy decision, will shed more light behind the MPC’s current stance on interest rates.

The minutes will reveal how many policymakers voted in favour of the latest decision and will potentially offer clues on the next course of action.

Investors will also be interested in what Carney has to say in the wake of his announcement that he will remain as governor until June 2019, a year longer than he had committed to serve.

Carney has said his decision to stay on until 2019 should help contribute in the transition of Brexit negotiations.

The Bank's latest outlook on inflation and economic growth will also be high on investors’ radar when Carney delivers the inflation report.

The central bank has been criticised for getting its forecasts wrong in the lead up to and in the aftermath of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union, so Carney is likely to tread carefully in his remarks.

The BoE was forced to defend its political independence after Pro-Brexit campaigners argued that it deliberately provided gloomy forecasts to support the Remain campaign in the referendum.

“Amid heightened speculation over his future, Mr. Carney highly likely announced his decision to stay until mid-2019 on Monday in the hope that this would stop attention being diverted from the latest Bank of England economic analysis – although he looks sure to face questioning on his decision at Thursday’s press conference,” Archer said.

Thursday 03 November

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
International Public Partnerships Ltd., STM Group

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Amati VCT , BlackRock Smaller Companies Trust, C&C Group, Elderstreet VCT, Harworth Group, Hilton Food Group, JZ Capital Partners Ltd, Laird, Mission Marketing Group, Morgan Advanced Materials , RTC Group, SThree, Trinity Mirror

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
JPMorgan Claverhouse Inv Trust

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Continuing Claims (US) (12:30)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (14:30)
Factory Orders (US) (15:00)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (12:30)
ISM Non-Manufacturing (US) (14:00)
Unemployment Rate (EU) (10:00)

Q3
Inmarsat, Lancashire Holdings Limited, RSA Insurance Group, Smith & Nephew

IMSS
RSA Insurance Group

DRILLING REPORT
Glencore

SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Calculus VCT, Playtech, TMT Investments, TR European Growth Trust

EGMS
Amiad Water Systems Ltd, BCRE - Brack Capital Real Estate Investments N.V. (DI), Matomy Media Group Limited (DI)

AGMS
Go-Ahead Group, New Star Investment Trust

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Persimmon, Regus

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00)
Nationwide House Price Index (07:00)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Redde, Standard Life UK Smaller Companies Trust

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Aeorema Communications, Ashmore Group, BlackRock Greater Europe Inv Trust, Blancco Technology Group, Clinigen Group, CVC Credit Partners European Opportunities Ltd EURO, CVC Credit Partners European Opportunities Ltd GBP, Dunelm Group, Fidelity Asian Values, Foresight Solar & Infrastructure VCT, Foresight Solar & Infrastructure VCT , James Halstead, JPMorgan Global Growth & Income, JPMorgan Income & Growth Inv Trust Income Shares, New Star Investment Trust, NWF Group, SCS Group , TR European Growth Trust