Thursday preview: ECB, Shell in focus

Investors' attention on Thursday would be on the European Central Bank.

Consensus was for a further 25 basis point interest rate hike in the main refinancing rate to 4.25%.

However, the ECB's governing council was expected to emphasise a more data-dependent approach going forwards in light of recent soft economic data.

That for example was the view of Salomon Fiedler at Berenberg.

Nonetheless, Fiedler believed that the ECB might end up the outlier in 2024 as money market rates would be kept near their peak while he expected that the Fed and the Bank of England would start cutting rates early in the year.

On the other hand, Melanie Debono at Pantheon Macroeconomics believed that the GC would continue to give short shrift to the plunge in M1 money supply and soft bank lending data.

"But we doubt we will see anything more than a slight dovish shift in tone from the Bank; those looking for a clear indication that tomorrow’s 25bp rate hike will be the last in the cycle are likely to be disappointed," she said in a research note sent to clients.

Readings on German consumer confidence and retail sales were also scheduled to be published.

Yet the U.S. would not be far from investors' minds with a batch of fresh economic indicators due for release.

Chief among those would be a preliminary reading on second quarter U.S. gross domestic product (consensus: 1.8% annualised) and the inflation figures contained therein.

Monthly data on durable goods orders, international trade, pending home sales and weekly jobless claims were also set for release.

Overnight in Asia, core consumer price data for Tokyo covering the month of July would be in focus.

In the company arena meanwhile, investors would be focused on Royal Dutch Shell's first half numbers.

Last June, the oil giant said that it would hike its dividend payout by 15% and spend another $5bn on share buybacks in the back half of 2023.

Management also outlined plans to invest $10-15bn across 202325 on developing low-carbon energy solutions.

However, its new boss Wael Sarwan pushed back on the narrative of renewables at any cost, Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK said.

Capex meanwhile would decrease to between $22-25bn over 2024-25.

Lastly, in its most recent trading update the company said that second quarter trading would be weaker as a result of decreased demand and lower prices with a loss in its chemicals division being probable.

Thursday 27 July

INTERIMS

Anglo American, Centrica, Drax Group, Forterra, Franchise Brands, Hammerson, Hammerson, Inchcape, Indivior, Informa, Jupiter Fund Management , Mobico Group, Rentokil Initial, Schroders, SEGRO, St James's Place

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Compass Group

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Bellevue Healthcare Trust (Red), Maven Income & Growth 3 VCT

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE

City of London Inv Trust, JPMorgan Claverhouse Inv Trust, Tufton Oceanic Assets Limited NPV

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)

Durable Goods Orders (US) (13:30)

ECB Interest Rate (EU) (13:15)

GDP (Preliminary) (US) (13:30)

GFK Consumer Confidence (GER) (07:00)

Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)

Pending Homes Sales (US) (15:00)

Q2

Indivior, Shell

GMS

Bidstack Group , Crossword Cybersecurity, KRM22

EGMS

SDIC Power Holdings Co.,Ltd GDR (Reg S)

AGMS

Arkle Resources (CDI), Biotech Growth Trust (The), Chaarat Gold Holdings Ltd. (DI), CMC Markets, Dekel Agri-Vision (DI), Firering Strategic Minerals (DI), Graft Polymer (UK) , Kendrick Resources, Montanaro UK Smaller Companies Inv Trust, Northern 3 VCT, Petrel Resources (CDI), Puma Alpha Vct , Puma Vct 13, Record, Tate & Lyle, Tiger Royalties and Investments, Volex

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

CMC Markets

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Anglo Asian Mining, Fidelity China Special Situations , Fuller Smith & Turner, Serica Energy, Tribal Group

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Bloomsbury Publishing, Cake Box Holdings, Calculus VCT , Calnex Solutions , Celtic 6% Cnv Cum Prf, City of London 4.2% Cum 1st Prf Stk, City of London Investment Trust 4.2% Non-Cum 2nd Prf Stk, City of London Investment Trust Preference Ord Stk 14% Non-Cumulative 1, Monks Inv Trust, Nexteq, Octopus AIM VCT, QinetiQ Group, SSE

Q1

Airtel Africa , BT Group