Thursday preview: Fed's Clarida, Johnson Matthey in focus

The market spotlight on Thursday will likely be on Richard Clarida, as the Federal Reserve's vice-chairman speaks at The Economic Club in New York.

Some economists believe his speech will be especially well-timed, given the recent inversion in the US Treasury yield curve, one of the typical precursors of an economic recession, and softness in capital markets around the world more generally, including as far afield as the emerging markets space.

On the back of the above, in recent weeks Fed funds futures have shifted very considerably, moving from implicitly pricing-in less than even odds of one 25 basis point cut in short-term official interest rates before 2019 was out to discounting a 50% probability of two such reductions.

Talking about the outlook for stock markets, on Tuesday UBS's Francois Trahan had pointed out to clients how the more cyclical areas of the market such as Energy and Financials had underperformed over the back half of 2018, and again throughout most of the year to date, during the recent rally, labelling the pattern "a bad omen for the road ahead".

Their peers at Goldman Sachs were more upbeat, arguing that the market typically rallied when the Fed stopped raising rates and sticking to an end-2019 target of 3,000 for the S&P 500.

The main reports will also come from the States, with readings due out on weekly jobless claims, foreign trade in April and first quarter gross domestic product.

Economic data is otherwise expected to be rather sparse on both sides of the Channel, although a reading on harmonised consumer prices in Spain for the month of May might give policymakers and traders some 'food for thought'.

Consensus is expecting the year-on-year rate of increase in Spanish prices to slip from 1.6% in April to 1.2% last month.

For Johnson Matthey's second half results, Deutsche Bank's Robin Draeger has penciled in a 6% jump in earnings before interest and tax versus a year ago to reach £290m, on the back of increased efficiency in Efficient Natural Resources, Health, and New Markets, but above all growth in Clean Air.

Draeger is also expecting "operational details" of continuing strategic execution to come through, despite weaker end market demand in the automotive space.

He further expects management to show confidence heading into the 2019/20 financial year, reiterate its medium-term strategy and guidance for a compound annual growth rate in earnings per share in the mid-to-high single-digits.

The analyst is also looking for an update on is commercialisation plans in battery materials.

"The valuation at 12.6x 19/20E P/E makes the stock one of the cheapest specialty names in the sector with a l/t structural growth story that remains undervalued, in our view."

Thursday May 30

INTERIMS

Urban&Civic

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Wetherspoon (J.D.)

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Artemis VCT, Britvic, Cardiff Property, Cerillion , DFS Furniture, Grainger, Greencore Group, IntegraFin Holding, Majedie Investments, On The Beach Group , Princess Private Equity Holding Ltd. (EUR), Sage Group, Stock Spirits Group , UDG Healthcare Public Limited Company

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE

Anglo Pacific Group, Greencoat Renewables

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE

BlackRock World Mining Trust, Canadian General Investments Ltd.

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)

Crude Oil Inventories (US) (16:00)

GDP (Preliminary) (US) (13:30)

Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)

Pending Homes Sales (US) (15:00)

FINALS

De La Rue, FirstGroup, Helios Underwriting, Johnson Matthey, LondonMetric Property, Pennon Group

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Croda International, Sabre Insurance Group

SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Artemis VCT

EGMS

F&C Commercial Property Trust Ltd.

AGMS

Air China Ltd., Albion Development VCT, Brady, Cobra Resources, eServGlobal Limited (DI), EU Supply, Frenkel Topping Group, Hvivo, Joint Stock Company National Atomic Company Kazatomprom GDR (Reg S) , Parity Group

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Daily Mail and General Trust A (Non.V), Johnson Matthey

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Aptitude Software Group , Aviva, Contour Global , Croda International, Greggs, Inmarsat, Pendragon, Portmeirion Group, Sabre Insurance Group, Stilo International, Zotefoams

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Aberdeen New Thai Inv Trust, Andrews Sykes Group, Bank of Georgia Group, C&C Group, CEIBA Investments Limited NPV, Computacenter, Ebiquity, Filta Group Holdings, Frenkel Topping Group, Gamma Communications, Global Ports Holding, Good Energy Group, Great Portland Estates, Hilton Food Group, Ingenta, JTC, Kakuzi Ltd., Keller Group, Keywords Studios, LXI Reit , Marks & Spencer Group, Mckay Securities, Medica Group , National Grid, Nucleus Financial Group , Pacific Assets Trust, Sigma Capital Group, Spire Healthcare Group, STM Group, The City Pub Group , Whitbread