Thursday preview: UK and US manufacturing data, Johnson Matthey, FirstGroup

A week before the general election and after a televised multi-party debate, political news will dominate the domestic agenda on Thursday 1 June, even if UK and US manufacturing data wildly veer away from expectations.

UK companies reporting include Johnson Matthey, with the chemicals group posting full year results under its new group structure of sectors aligned to four "global priorities": Clean Air, Efficient Natural Resources, Health and New Markets.

The City consensus is for operating profit of £505m and earnings per share of 205p.

Profit before tax was £410.7m the previous year and guidance for PBT this year is for it to remain unchanged.

Numis said that after backing out the £7.5m from the divested research chemicals unit and as a £65m currency translational benefit has been flagged up, "then logically the high £470ms ought to be possible".

"Consensus (as per Vara indications circulated on 19 April) is though below this and when we raised this matter with IR just before the year end we were told that some analysts simply did not believe the guidance, hence the wide range above. Even though JM actually has a reasonable delivery record here," said analyst Charles Pick.

Mass public transport operator FirstGroup is also set to publish full year results, with UBS forecasting revenue of £5.67bn, adjusted profit before tax of £195m, EPS of 12.4p and no resumption of the dividend.

With the important UK South Western rail franchise awarded and the East Midland rail franchise winner not due to be announced until March next year, the Swiss bank suggested the near term focus will be on earnings, UK and North American bus operations and progress on improving margins in line with peers.

Analysts want to hear about pricing negotiations in North American school bus division, if the company seen any organic growth or contract wins, and whether there has been progress on underperforming contracts and cost pressures from a shortage of drivers.

"Also, how has the low oil environment continued to impact Greyhound? Are revenues and margins seeing any recovery? [And] how have UK bus margins fared given the tough revenue growth environment?"

UK manufacturing PMI

In April, the UK manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose three points to 57.3 as the sector seemed to start the second quarter on the charge.

The consensus forecast is for the headline PMI to ease back to 56.5 for May.

Noting that Markit's forward-looking indicators – new orders and new export orders -- also rose, while the future output index stayed at its 10-month high, HSBC said: "Against this backdrop, and given strong readings in the eurozone for May, we think the reading could even inch up further this month."

US manufacturing PMI and ADP

The ISM manufacturing PMI is probably the big data point of the day. In April, the reading showed a drop to 54.8 from 57.2 and 57.7 in the previous two months.

Growth in May is forecast by the market to decline modestly further to 54.6.

But Barclays predicted the May ISM manufacturing index to firm slightly to 55.0. "Some of the forward ISM subcomponents like new orders point to a moderation in the index, while the regional manufacturing surveys (eg. Philly Fed and Empire State), on balance, are indicative of modest improvement."

The ADP employment report is expected to show a strengthened increase of 180,000 in numbers of private sector employment from the 177,000 in April.

Thursday June 01

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Construction Spending (US) (15:00)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (16:00)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
ISM Manufacturing (US) (15:00)

FINALS
FirstGroup, Immupharma, Johnson Matthey

INTERIMS
Watkin Jones

SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
DFS Furniture, Northern Venture Trust, Taylor Wimpey

AGMS
Allied Minds , BGEO Group, Camellia, Filta Group Holdings, Georgia Healthcare Group, Hostelworld Group , Jimmy Choo , Osirium Technologies, Plus500 Ltd (DI), Randall & Quilter Investment Holdings (DI), Seplat Petroleum Development Company (DI), Tri-Star Resources

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
BAE Systems, Croda International, Robinson, Smart Metering Systems

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Aberdeen New Thai Inv Trust, Dillistone Group, Flowtech Fluidpower, Gamma Communications, Great Portland Estates, Headlam Group, Hilton Food Group, ICG Enterprise Trust, Keywords Studios, Marks & Spencer Group, Mckay Securities, Michelmersh Brick Holdings, Moss Bros Group, National Grid, Pacific Assets Trust, Shawbrook Group, Spire Healthcare Group, Staffline Group, STM Group

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
BlackRock World Mining Trust, Britvic, Cardiff Property, Cerillion , Countryside Properties, Debenhams, DFS Furniture, easyHotel, Grainger, Henderson European Focus Trust, Inland Homes, Jersey Electricity 'A' Shares, Majedie Investments, Northern Venture Trust, On The Beach Group , Patisserie Holdings , Renew Holdings, RM Secured Direct Lending, SSP Group , Titon Holdings, ZPG Plc

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
JPMorgan Claverhouse Inv Trust

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Albion Technology & General VCT