Thursday preview: UK employment, ECB, AJ Bell in focus

The market spotlight on Thursday will be on the UK jobs market and whether or not the latest data support expectations for an interest rate cut in September.

Consensus is for a slowdown in the rate of wage gains from a quarterly year-on-year pace of 6% in April to 5.7% for May.

The June claimant count meanwhile is seen rising by 23,400.

Against that backdrop, at 1215 BST the European Central Bank will announce its latest policy decision.

No changes in policy settings are anticipated this time around.

But investors are keen to see whether ECB boss Christine Lagarde will drop any hints abut a further rate cut at September's meeting.

Economists at Bank of America believe that the euro area's monetary authority would lower rates twice more in 2024, followed by five cuts in 2025 and a further two in 2026.

Nonetheless, in a preview sent to clients on the day before the decision, they cautioned that: "Our conviction in the end point is high, but recent inflation and wage growth data make us a little nervous on the fate of the September rate cut."

In the US investors' focus will be on the Philly Fed's regional factory survey at 1230 BST, together with the latest weekly jobless claims numbers that are due out alongside.

AJ Bell will be among the UK corporates reporting results on Thursday.

Analyst Haley Tam at UBS thinks investors' focus will be on the broker's assets under administration at the end of its third fiscal quarter.

Net flows and customer numbers, in particular, will be in focus, Tam said.

In that regard, Tam noted how in April AJ Bell had indicated pricing tariff changes starting from April 2024.

Thursday 18 July

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Dewhurst Group, Dewhurst Group 'A'NON.VTG, Hercules Site Services , Porvair

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE

JpMorgan China Growth & Income , M Winkworth, TwentyFour Select Monthly Income Fund Limited

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)

ECB Report (EU) (13:15)

Existing Home Sales (US) (15:00)

Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)

Philadelphia Fed Index (US) (13:30)

GMS

Theracryf

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Downing Strategic Micro-Cap Investment Trust Red

AGMS

Biotech Growth Trust (The), Braveheart Investment Group, Brown (N.) Group, FD Technologies Public Limited Company, Ingenta, Johnson Matthey, Novacyt S.A. (CDI), Premier Foods, QinetiQ Group, SIMEC Atlantis Energy Limited (DI), SSE, Tower Resources, TR Property Inv Trust

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

AJ Bell, Diploma, Diploma, Dunelm Group, QinetiQ Group, SSE, The Artisanal Spirits Company

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Claimant Count Rate (07:00)

Unemployment Rate (07:00)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

DCC (CDI)

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Bytes Technology Group , C&C Group (CDI), Castings, Celebrus Technologies, Cranswick, FirstGroup, Ninety One , ProVen Growth & Income VCT, ProVen VCT, Victorian Plumbing Group