Thursday preview: UK retail sales, US existing home sales, Premier Oil interims

UK retail sales figures on Thursday are expected to show consumers spent more in July as lower fuel and food prices give spending power a boost.

The data from the Office for National Statistics is forecast to reveal retail sales rose 4.3% year-on-year in July, compared to 4.2% in June. On a month-on-month basis sales are predicted to have increased 0.4% in July following a 0.2% fall a month earlier.

Any signs of further economic recovery in the UK are likely to lift expectations that an interest rate hike by the Bank of England is edging closer.

Likewise, the Federal Reserve is monitoring data in weighing the timing of its first interest rate increase in nine years.

The central bank is therefore probably keeping a close watch on Thursday’s report on existing home sales which analysts anticipate may show a 1.2% drop in July after a 3.2% increase in June.

The weekly jobless claims report is also due. Initial jobless claims are predicted to fall to 272,000 in the week to 15 August from 274,000 the prior week.

In company events, Premier Oil reports is first-half interims. Numis said it expects a number of one-off costs to lead to an “unflattering profit and loss” statement, including the write-off expenses relating to the Solan project, West of Shetland in the UK.

Premier bought Chrysaor’s 40% interest in the Solan field in May and is expected to come on stream in the fourth quarter.

“We forecast a profit after tax of -$280m,” Numis analyst Sanjeev Bahl said. “From a cash perspective we expect this to be a strong period for Premier benefitting from 30%+ opex cost reductions in the North Sea and in Vietnam.”

Wednesday 19 August

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Payments (EU) (09:00)
Consumer Price Index (US) (13:30)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
Current Account (EU) (09:00)
FOMC Interest Rate Minutes (US) (19:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)

INTERIMS
Admiral Group, Glencore , Hikma Pharmaceuticals, Hochschild Mining, Inspired Energy, MirLand Development Corporation, Plaza Centers NV

IMSS
Imperial Tobacco Group

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Shoe Zone

EGMS
Global Invacom Group Limited (DI)

AGMS
General Industries

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Bacit Limited, Halma