Tuesday preview: CPI data due as British Land and Easyjet report

While markets are likely to be less focused on data alone this week in light of the Paris attacks and geopolitical tensions, Tuesday sees the publishing of consumer price inflation in the UK and US.

UK 'core' CPI inflation rate is widely expected to have fallen further into negative territory in October, easing to -0.9% in the year-on-year comparison from 1.0%.

This will drag the headline rate down to a fall of 0.2% in October from a 0.1% decline in September

Another dip in petrol and airline prices are predicted to have eased their inflationary pressure but the chief cause of the deflationary pressures will come from lower education inflation after previous year-on-year jumps in university tuition fees, economists said.

Pantheon Economics, for example, has pencilled in a drop in eduction inflation to 4% in october from 9.1%, so its contribution to headline inflation should fall by 0.1 percentage points.

While a further fall in CPI will spark hyperbolic headlines about a descent into pernicious deflation, Pantheon's Sam Tombs said these should be ignored.

"October’s print will almost certainly represent the nadir and we think it will take only a year for CPI inflation to return to the MPC’s 2% target."

UK producer prices figures are also scheduled, with the consensus estimate being for input prices to rise 0.2% month on month, and show a 12% decline year-on-year.

Output prices are expected to decline 0.1% month-on-month and 1.4% year-on-year.

"October’s producer prices are likely to show that low oil prices continue to subdue pipeline inflationary pressures," said Capital Economics.

Across the Atlantic, some contrast will be provided as US core inflation should pick up to close to 2.0% year-on-year.

With Fed fund futures already pricing about a 70% chance of a hike this year, Barclays said inflation numbers should point in the same direction, with strong readings in service-related sectors.

US industrial production is forecast to show a 0.1% monthly increase despite continued dollar strength.

In Europe, following disappointing German industrial data a further downward move is expected in the ZEW current conditions survey, with ZEW expectations predicted by many to turn negative for the first time in a year.

Company reporting

British Land and EasyJet are two of the FTSE 100 companies due to post results.

For first half results from British Land, the consensus market estimate is for earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of £268m and 15.6p of earnings per share (EPS).

Analysts at UBS estimate net asset value (NAV) per share of 899p and EPS of 16.1p from a period when the real estate investment group sold off its 39 Victoria Street for £144m.

The Swiss bank recently raised its target price to 1000p and NAV forecasts due to the strong capital growth, particularly in London Office, driven primarily by rental growth, although yields continue to compress.

UBS said it was looking for an update on the superstore portfolio, given recent commentary that yields have moved out, and expect this area of the portfolio will drag on results and that the company will begin "discretely" disposing these assets.

For EasyJet, the market will be expecting full year numbers of £4.7bn in revenue, EBITDA of £824.4m and adjusted earnings of 137p per share.

"We think what is more important than the full year 2015 numbers is how Q1 has progressed and the company's future outlook on 1H 2016," USB said, noting it will also be the market's first opportunity to meet the new CFO.

Tuesday 17 November

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Price Index (09:30)
Producer Price Index (09:30)
Retail Price Index (09:30)

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Capacity Utilisation (US) (14:15)
Consumer Price Index (US) (13:30)
Industrial Production (US) (14:15)
New Car Registrations (EU) (10:00)
ZEW Survey (EU) (10:00)
ZEW Survey (GER) (10:00)

FINALS
Easyjet, Enterprise Inns

INTERIMS
Big Yellow Group, Blinkx, British Land, Entertainment One Limited, Halma, Homeserve, Intermediate Capital Group, Mckay Securities

Q2/Q3/TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Big Yellow Group, Coats Group, Devro, Nord Gold NV GDR (Reg S), Spirax-Sarco Engineering

AGMS
Animalcare Group, Bluefield Solar Income Fund Limited, Craneware, Eagle Eye Solutions Group, Global Petroleum Ltd., JPMorgan Emerging Markets Inv Trust, Madagascar Oil Ltd (DI), Mobile Streams, New World Oil And Gas, Smiths Group, Spectra Systems Corporation

EGMS
B.S.D Crown Ltd (DI)

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aviva, Seplat Petroleum Development Company (DI)