Wednesday preview: Autumn Budget, GSK in focus

All eyes on Wednesday will be on the Chancellor´s budget statement, although according to Barclays Research, Rishi Sunak is unlikely "to alter the contours of the already restrictive policy mix meaningfully".

"Although various policy measures have been reported for the upcoming Budget, we do not believe that these will materially affect the public finance," Barclays said.

In broad terms, the borrowing profile from the Office for Budget Responsibility may include increased spending on debt interest payments, possibly offset by improved assumptions around the economic outlook, Barclays added.

As for the Spending Review, Barclays said it was an opportunity for the government to be clear on what funds it will provide to its twin objectives of levelling up and for the transition to net-zero.

In the States meanwhile, investors will likely still be digesting the latest earnings updates out of Apple and Alphabet.

Across the Channel, the spotlight will be on readings for consumer confidence in France and Germany in October and November, respectively.

Also due out are euro area money supply figures from the European Central Bank covering the month of September.

For GlaxoSmithKline's third quarter numbers, UBS analyst Laura Sutcliffe has penciled-in sales of £8.57bn for core earnings before interest and taxes of approximately £2.28bn.

The recovery path for its treatment against Shingles, Shingrix, would be "crucial" she said.

Her estimate for sales over the latest quarter was £414m, for 18% growth year-on-year, having been flat during the preceding three months and down by half in the first quarter.

"The core earnings number will likely be muddied by contribution from “covid solutions” (affecting both revenues and costs), which are excluded from FY21 guidance. Our 3Q core basic EPS forecast is 28.6p per share, inline," she said.

She also noted that the company's guidance for growth in the back half of the year was skewed towards the fourth quarter, due to the impacts from one-offs on the comparisons with the previous year.

Sutcliffe added that at this time she did not expect any upgrades to guidance.

Wednesday 27 October

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