Nothing new on cryptocurrencies after SEC's blow to Bitcoin ETFs

There have been few movements in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC) rises moderately and tries to regain $26,000, while Ethereum (ETH) barely rises and remains below $1,650.

Digital assets continue to show no signs of going one way or the other. After the optimism generated by Grayscale's victory before the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the price of the market's major cryptocurrencies lost all the gains after the regulator announced it would delay its decision on the spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) proposed by BlackRock, Invesco, WisdomTree or Fidelity, among others.

The Commission has a total of 240 days from the start of the review of the applications to make a final decision. Traditionally, the regulator has used all possible comment and review periods to delay making final decisions until those 240 days have elapsed, so these decisions were to be expected.

It is important to remember that the SEC could again extend the deadline for responding to these petitions, given that it began the ETF review process in mid-July. Most experts believe that the regulator will not issue a verdict until well into the first quarter of 2024, specifically March. Last week, 'Bloomberg' analysts, Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, raised the likelihood of the SEC approving a spot BTC ETF in 2023 by 10 percentage points to 75%, although they cautioned that a delay was likely.

Similarly, the market valued important macroeconomic data released last week. On the one hand, US PCE inflation, one of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) favorite indicators, rebounded in July to 3.3% year-on-year, after closing June at 3%. At the same time, the August employment report showed the creation of 187,000 jobs, a figure significantly above the consensus forecast (170,000) and the July figure (157,000).

Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets, noted that this reading makes it "more likely to remain on track when it comes to the Fed." "Basically, the data has confirmed once again that a softening of the job market is very much in play while the overall picture for the labour market is still strong. So, most traders believe that the Fed is more likely to stay on the sidelines, but at the same time, inflation pressure remains intact," he added. Similarly, strategists at Oxford Economics asserted that "the August jobs report gives the Fed plenty of room to leave policy steady at this month's FOMC meeting."

According to data from CME's FedWatch tool, investors take for granted, with a probability of more than 90%, that the Fed will pause its interest rate tightening cycle on September 20. However, the consensus gives a probability of around 33% that the U.S. central bank will make one more hike in the remainder of the year, which would take interest rates to the 550-575 basis point range.

On the technical side, César Nuez, analyst at Bolsamanía, believes that the reigning cryptocurrency has complicated its technical aspect after the recent falls. "We will not see a sign of strength in its technical aspect again until it manages to overcome the level of $28,620, prices 10% above current trading levels," he commented.

In the rest of the market, there have been moderate rises for the main altcoins; namely, Cardano (ADA), Ripple (XRP) Solana (SOL)... The declines of more than 0.5% in Dogecoin (DOGE) are also noteworthy.