FX roundup: Sterling on the front foot despite falling against a revitalised rand

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Sharecast News | 31 Oct, 2016

Updated : 18:23

Sterling turned in an overall positive performance on most major crosses as a slew of UK economic data helped to partially offset the currency's chronic Brexit-inspired depreciation.

At about 17:16 GMT, sterling was up 0.25% to $1.2216 and up 0.23% to €1.1145. The dollar-spot index was ahead 0.12% to $98.464.

HL Currency Service senior analyst Chris Saint said despite this gain, the UK unit continued to struggle against the euro, closing last week at about €1.11 regardless of encouraging third-quarter UK growth data.

This week, global central bank policy meetings dominate proceedings and investors are understandably cautious as these events near. Monetary policy calls are due from Japan, Australia, the US and the UK.

"The UK economy's apparent resilience, renewed sterling losses and rising inflation all support the case for the Bank of England holding off on cutting interest rates further for the time being," said Saint.

Sterling made mild to moderate inroads against the Australian, Canadian, New Zealand and Japan currencies, but tanked against South Africa's hitherto weak rand.

The rand spiked on Monday after fraud charges against Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan were dropped because there was no intention on his part to act unlawfully, reports said.

At about 17:16 GMT, sterling was down 2.31% to 16.4697 rand, while the US dollar was down 2.43% to 13.4989 rand on precisely the same grounds.

On the economic front, Bank of England data showed UK mortgage approvals rose to 62,932 in September from 60,984 in August and above economists' forecast for 61,500.

BoE data also showed consumer lending growth slowed and missed estimates. It rose by £1.405bn in September compared to forecasts of £1.5bn and the previous month’s £1.635bn increase.

Across the channel, euro-zone inflation rose an annualised 0.5% in October, after a 0.4% rise in September, as expected. It remained below the European Central Bank's near-2% target.

Euro-zone gross domestic product in the three months to end-September edged up 0.3% on-quarter and 1.6% on the year. Both were unchanged from second quarter and were in line with estimates.

"The preliminary flash estimate of Eurozone third-quarter GDP supports the message from earlier country data that the pace of growth remains fairly slow," said Capital Economics.

Meantime, the greenback produced a mixed performance on most key crosses. It also slipped on the aussie, but made gains versus the euro, loonie, kiwi and yen.

"The proximity of next week's US Presidential elections are also widely expected to keep the Federal Reserve in wait-and-see mode," Saint added in a statement.

"Friday's (US) non-farm payroll employment figures will come under scrutiny as markets continue to look towards a US rate hike in December," Saint said.

In US macro news, personal income and spending were slightly weaker than expected in September. Incomes rose 0.3% on the month, while spending was ahead by 0.5%, Department of Commerce said. Economists forecast rises of 0.4% and 0.5%.

The headline price deflator for personal consumption expenditures rose by 0.2% over the month and by 0.1% at the 'core' level.

Manufacturing activity in the Great Lakes area got off to a weak start in the fourth quarter, the results of a widely-followed survey showed.

MNI's Chicago factory sector purchasing managers´ index declined by 3.6 points to a five-month low of 50.6. Economists had forecast a reading of 54.0.

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