Poll predicts May's Tories to fall short of majority, markets prefer other poll
Updated : 14:17
Two new opinion polls on Monday showed a continued wide divergence of predictions just three days ahead of the general election.
The latest poll by ICM for the Guardian on Monday put the Conservatives on 45% and Labour on 34% - both unmoved ahead of Thursday's election. The poll was conducted between Thursday and Sunday.
The 11 percentage point lead was down from a 12-point lead in a poll published a week ago.
Meanwhile, YouGov's daily voting intention update showed the Tories on 42% and with 305 seats in the Commons, with Labour on 38% and 268 seats.
The study by YouGov meant, remarkably, that May's Conservatives would be 21 short of a majority of 326 needed to pass laws.
This compares from some predictions in political spread betting markets only last month that the Prime Minister would romp home with a 160 seat majority.
Financial market reaction
Sterling was up 0.2% versus the dollar by midday on Monday and 0.5% against the euro at 1.2908 and 1.1481 at around midday on Monday, as markets reacted.
Some strategists, notably including those at JPMorgan, have in recent weeks suggested a strong Labour performance would be the best result for the UK as a coalition of center-left parties would lead to a “soft” Brexit, which might be better for the UK economy and its currency.
Spreadex analyst Connor Campbell said on Monday that investors instead appeared to be focusing on the latest ISM poll rather than the YouGov one, which many believe to be an outlier.
Furthermore the 11-point lead of the ICM poll is markedly wider than some weekend polls which showed only a 1-point gap.
Craig Erlam at Oanda added: "Of course, different polls are still giving us a variety of outcomes, with some still pointing to a comfortable majority for the Conservatives, which appears to be the most market friendly scenario. The memory of 2015 when the Conservatives performed much better than expected may well be helping to support the pound, even as some surveys paint a worrying picture for Theresa May."